“The End of the Province-Merging Craze: Cooling Land Prices Bring Price Reductions”

Cooling Down of Land Prices

The news of provincial mergers at the beginning of 2025 sparked a surge in the land market, knocking condos off the top spot in terms of user interest in previous quarters. 

According to Batdongsan.com.vn’s Q1/2025 real estate market data, as of March 2025, there was a significant increase in land searches in many provinces following the merger announcement. Specifically, compared to February 2025, land searches in Hanoi increased by 52%, Ho Chi Minh City by 31%, Hung Yen by 36%, Thai Binh by 75%, Binh Duong by 49%, Ba Ria – Vung Tau by 42%, Quang Binh by 45%, and Quang Tri by 8%.

In March, the Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association (VARS) assessed that the market was influenced by the news of provincial mergers, causing land prices to surge once again. Many localities recorded price increases of 5-30%, including Ninh Binh, Ha Nam, Hai Phong, Bac Giang, Hai Duong, and the outskirts of Hanoi…

However, after a short period of feverish activity, the land fever has cooled down, even with the National Assembly’s official approval of the resolution on the rearrangement of provincial-level administrative units in 2025 and the announcement of the new map of 34 provinces and cities in Vietnam. Many investors who participated with the intention of “surfing” the market have been left stranded.

Compared to April 2025, the market has shown slight signs of cooling down in most provinces, reflecting a cautious attitude following the counter-tax information. Specifically, interest in Bac Giang in May decreased by 11% compared to April, Bac Ninh by 4%, Hoa Binh by 16%, and Hung Yen by 10%…

Despite the slowdown in interest, land prices in the northern provinces have remained stable compared to the peak in March 2025. Specifically, compared to the March peak, while Vinh Phuc maintained a 14% growth rate, Bac Giang recorded a 7% decrease. Bac Ninh increased by 20% compared to the previous year and continued to inch up by 3% compared to March 2025. Quang Ninh increased by 12% compared to the peak. Hai Phong remained stable compared to January 2024 and the March peak.

Price Decreases in Some Areas

According to a practical survey by Batdongsan.com in some provinces, land prices in Van Giang (Hung Yen) remain at VND 125-150 million/sqm for lots in the roundabout area. Some lots are even slightly reduced by 1-2 VND compared to April 2025. Many lots in Phung Cong, Xuan Cao, and Cuu Cao no longer fluctuate in price, with selling prices remaining at VND 40-55 million/sqm but slow liquidity. Some lots where the owners need money urgently are reduced by 1-2 million VND/sqm but still cannot find buyers.

In Hung Yen city, a lot on Luong Dinh Cua Street, which was offered at VND 35 million/sqm in March 2025, is now sold at VND 32 million/sqm. Some lots in Hien Nam Ward have also slightly decreased from VND 32 million/sqm during the fever to an average of VND 30 million/sqm.

In Thai Binh, land in Hoang Dieu Ward in Thai Binh city, which was offered at an average price of VND 30-32 million/sqm during the fever, is now offered by many landowners at only VND 29-30 million/sqm.

A similar situation occurred in Viet Tri city (Phu Tho), where land in Tho Son Ward is still offered at VND 22-27 million/sqm, but the actual transaction price is lower by 1-2 VND. Van Phu land is currently offered at VND 18-21 million/sqm, slightly lower than the price of VND 19.5-22 million/sqm in March 2025. Land in Minh Phuong area decreased from VND 30-34 million/sqm to VND 29-32.5 million/sqm.

In Bac Ninh, land prices in Thuan Thanh, Gia Binh, Luong Tai, and other towns have remained stable for over two months. The number of investors flocking to these areas has also decreased compared to March. Notably, some investors with the intention of “surfing” the market are now stranded.

A 37-year-old investor named Hung put down a deposit of VND 300 million to purchase a 100sqm lot at VND 27 million/sqm, intending to “surf” the market. However, after making the deposit, he resold the lot and struggled to find a serious buyer. Hung wanted to get his deposit back but was unable to do so.

“Using the excuse that the deadline for the transfer procedure was approaching and the seller had not completed the necessary paperwork, I wanted to back out of the deal. However, on the night of the deadline, at 9 p.m., the seller finished the procedure. I had to go through with the purchase. I intended to surf the market, but now I find myself a long-term investor,” shared Hung.

Investors’ Psychology Shifts Back to Condos

Mr. Le Dinh Chung, CEO of SGO Homes, assessed that since April, the market in these areas has shown signs of stabilization or even price decreases.

According to Mr. Chung, many investors who rushed to buy land due to the merger news are now stranded as the fever passed quickly. Investors need to have a longer-term vision and analyze specific factors such as the economy, infrastructure, and population in the area. At the same time, real estate investors in the current context should hold their investments for at least 3-5 years instead of “surfing” for short-term gains.

Notably, in May, interest in land unexpectedly decreased by 5% compared to April, while interest in condos increased by 19%, and interest in detached houses and villas increased by 9%.

Commenting on this development, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, said that one of the most notable points was the strong increase in interest in condo apartments, especially in Hanoi and the northern provinces.

“This could be the first sign that investors and buyers are returning to the trend of choosing safer options. Investors tend to repeat psychological cycles. When they perceive a hot market, they rush into land, as seen in March. When they feel insecure, they will return to forms with cash flow and good liquidity, such as condo apartments,” said Mr. Quoc Anh.

Commenting on the land market’s prospects, Ms. Pham Mien, Deputy Director of the Institute for Real Estate Market Research and Evaluation in Vietnam, said that in markets that have experienced hot growth in prices, there will be adjustments. Well-invested projects with clear legal status from reputable investors will continue to attract buyers.

At the same time, feverish speculation may still occur locally if there is additional information on mechanisms, policies, or planning. This is because the land segment is always very sensitive to news, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) still exists among a certain group of investors.