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On August 6th, former US President Donald Trump stated that he might impose additional tariffs on China, similar to those implemented on India, if these countries continue to purchase oil from Russia despite sanctions.
Speaking to the press, Trump said that his administration is considering secondary sanctions to increase pressure on Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. When asked about the possibility of tariffs on China, he replied, “That could happen… I can’t tell you that definitely yet. We’ve done that with India, and we may do it with some others. One of which will be China.”
On the same day, the Trump administration announced an additional 25% tariff on imports from India, bringing the total tariff rate on goods from the South Asian country to 50%. This move was justified by India’s continued importation of Russian oil, despite previous warnings from Washington.
Earlier, US Secretary of Finance Scott Bessent had also warned that China could face new tariffs if it continued to buy Russian oil, which is currently under sanctions from the West.
According to data intelligence company Kpler, Russian oil is being sold to Indian buyers at a significant discount due to EU sanctions and fears of US sanctions. Specifically, the price of Urals, Russia’s flagship oil grade, is about $5 per barrel lower than Brent crude.
Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analytics at Kpler, stated that the trend of declining Russian oil prices could persist in the short term due to uncertainties arising from US actions. Additionally, the temporary shutdown of several Russian refineries for maintenance from August to October will increase the supply of oil in the market.
However, according to Kpler, replacing Russian supplies, which currently account for 37% of India’s total oil imports, will be challenging in terms of both cost and logistics. While Indian state-owned companies are considering halting Russian oil imports, private companies continue to buy, albeit at a slower pace.
Kpler also noted that US crude oil imports into India have increased significantly recently. Since May 2025, US oil exports to India have averaged about 225,000 barrels per day, nearly double the average from earlier in the year.
As the US continues to use tariffs as a geopolitical tool, it will create further pressure on countries reliant on cheap Russian oil. The next developments will depend on how Beijing and New Delhi respond to the escalating sanctions threats from Washington.
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