Upside-down and downside-up housing market in Ho Chi Minh City

From 2016 to 2023, Ho Chi Minh City witnessed the emergence of 365 approved residential projects. Over time, the number of affordable housing projects dwindled on the market, despite the high demand for this segment.

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An article from March 7th by the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) reveals that the affordable housing segment (priced under 25 million VND per square meter) has disappeared since 2021. From 2016 to 2023, Ho Chi Minh City had a total of 365 future housing projects with 186,395 units approved for sale. Initially, the majority of these projects consisted of affordable and mid-range apartments. However, from 2021 to 2023, luxury apartments became dominant in the market, while the affordable segment seemed to vanish.

Number of future housing projects eligible for capital mobilization and transaction volume in Ho Chi Minh City from 2016 to 2023

Source: HoREA

Source: HoREA

HoREA presents a “reverse pyramid” model of the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City in 2023. It shows that luxury housing accounts for 71.5% and forms the inverse base of the pyramid, while mid-range housing only represents 28.5% as the inverted top of the pyramid.

On the other hand, the “forward pyramid” model, which describes a safe, healthy, and sustainable housing market, is completely contrary to the current reality. Affordable housing and new social housing make up the majority at the base, followed by mid-range housing, with luxury housing being the top and least represented segment.

“Reverse pyramid” structure of the actual housing supply market, which is far from the needs of the people. Source: HoREA

Thu Minh