At the seminar “Vietnam’s Economy in the First Six Months of 2024 and Prospects for the Full Year: New Drivers for Quality Growth” on July 9, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong, Director of the Research Synthesis Department (CIEM), presented two updated macroeconomic forecast scenarios for 2024.
In the first scenario, GDP growth is expected to reach 6.55% in 2024. Exports for the full year 2024 are projected to increase by 9.54% compared to 2023. The average CPI index for 2024 is expected to increase by 4.31% compared to 2023. The trade balance maintains a surplus of $5.7 billion.
Scenario 1: This assumes that global economic factors continue to align with assessments by international organizations and that Vietnam maintains similar policy efforts as in the first half of 2024.
Scenario 2: In a more optimistic outlook, CIEM forecasts GDP growth at 6.95% in 2024. Exports for the full year 2024 are expected to increase by 11.64% compared to 2023. The average CPI index for 2024 is projected to increase by 4.12% compared to 2023. The trade balance achieves a surplus of $7.3 billion.
Explaining scenario 2 (higher GDP growth with lower CPI compared to scenario 1), Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong stated that this scenario assumes a more positive global economic context, including a faster global growth recovery, increased investment in Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, and a strong recovery in global supply chains.
“The import price index for goods in the second quarter of 2024 decreased by more than 3% compared to the same period last year. This has contributed to adjusting the CPI index downward in the second quarter of 2024 and is expected to continue in the near future,” said Mr. Duong.
Additionally, according to Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong, this scenario also assumes that Vietnam effectively implements solutions for economic reform and governance, thereby maximizing public investment disbursement/absorption and credit (including credit quality), and improving the business environment…
Regarding long-term growth potential, CIEM suggested that Vietnam can develop green finance and night-time economy in some major cities. However, to unlock this potential, certain limitations need to be addressed. For instance, in green finance, there is a lack of official evaluation criteria, incomplete legal regulations, and capital-related risks. As for the night-time economy, the current challenge is the lack of diverse products to attract tourist spending and create an appealing “night-time economy” effect.
In the second half of 2024, CIEM experts emphasized that Vietnam should also pay attention to addressing certain issues and challenges.
Firstly, inflationary pressures remain significant. Notably, the impact of the increase in the base salary and the regional minimum wage may cause cost-push inflation if timely and synchronized solutions are not implemented. Moreover, the risk of an escalation in the trade war between the US and China, along with potential inflationary pressures in the US and higher Fed interest rates, should be carefully considered.
Secondly, the connectivity between domestic enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and foreign-invested enterprises remains slow to improve, affecting the contribution and benefits of domestic enterprises from exports.
Fourthly, the process of reforming regulations and business conditions has not kept pace with requirements and expectations, potentially impacting businesses’ ability to seize economic opportunities.
Positive Signs in Exports and Imports: Early 2024
Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in January 2024 reached nearly $64.22 billion, representing an increase of 37.7% compared to the same period last year. This positive signal in the trade of goods shows a promising start to the year 2024.
Vietnam’s economy predicted to have a rapid boost in the early months, as various indicators skyrocket.
These statistics indicate that Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2024 are quite positive.
Vietnam’s Economic Landscape in the First Month of 2024
In January 2024, the country witnessed the reactivation of nearly 13.8 thousand businesses, which is 2.2 times higher than December 2023 and represents an 8.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. This resulted in a total of over 27.3 thousand newly established and reactivated businesses in January 2024, marking a 5.5% increase from the previous year.
Vietnam’s exports bring in over $15 billion in the first half of January
Vietnam’s exports in the first month of January 2024 reached nearly $15.09 billion, a decrease of 7.5% (equivalent to a $1.23 billion decrease in absolute terms) compared to the second month of December 2023.
