The Stock Market Surprise: VCB and BID to the Rescue

The buying force weakened significantly during the morning session, causing a wave of selling pressure that pushed stock prices lower. Despite the selling pressure not being particularly strong, nearly 57% of the stocks in the VN-Index fell by over 1%, while the index itself lost 0.45% (-5.6 points).

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Buying demand suddenly weakened significantly in this morning’s session, causing selling pressure to push stock prices down across the board. Nearly 57% of the stocks in the VN-Index fell by over 1%, while the index itself lost only 0.45% (-5.6 points).

Trading liquidity on the HoSE was also modest, with approximately 6,987 billion VND in matching value, a slight decrease of 3% from yesterday morning. The market breadth was extremely negative, with 85 gainers and 331 losers, of which 192 stocks declined by more than 1%. This group also accounted for over 61% of the total matching value on the exchange.

Thus, the price decline this morning was mainly due to weakened buying demand, while wider adjustments in stock prices occurred without a significant increase in trading volume as sellers lowered their asking prices.

There was no sudden negative news, and US stocks even rose overnight while the Fed signaled a clearer path towards potential rate cuts starting in September. In reality, the blue-chip group underwent normal adjustments, with the VN30-Index falling by 0.48%, including 11 gainers and 16 losers. Eleven stocks in this basket fell by more than 1%, but only FPT, down 1.63%, and VPB, down 1.05%, were among the top 10 in terms of market capitalization.

However, mid-cap and small-cap stocks witnessed steep declines. The Midcap index lost 1.44% of its value, while the Smallcap index plummeted by 2.05%. One hundred and ten stocks that declined by more than 2% belonged to these groups, with 60 stocks from the Smallcap basket alone.

QCG, SMC, and TLH were the three stocks that hit their daily limit down. Other stocks that witnessed sharp declines included NHA, down 6.27%; BFC, down 5.8%; CTS, down 5.45%; NTL, down 4.88%; DPG, down 4.83%; VOS, down 4.86%; LHG, down 4.57%; VDS, down 4.55%; TCM, down 4.51%; VTO, down 4.39%; and AGR, down 4.05%… Many of these stocks had surged in the previous session and had risen significantly in the past two weeks. Therefore, today’s U-turn could be attributed to short-term profit-taking.

The market did not open on a negative note. The VN-Index peaked at 9:48 am, gaining over 6.3 points. The market breadth at the peak was not too bad, with 157 gainers and 173 losers, indicating that blue-chips were outperforming the overall market and that selling pressure in mid- and small-caps emerged earlier. The VNMidcap and VNSMallcap indices turned red much earlier compared to the VN-Index.

Intraday chart of the VN-Index on August 1st, 2024

Currently, the VN30 group remains the main support, even though the number of declining stocks outweighs the gainers. VCB rose by 2.24%, BID by 1.37%, SAB by 1.99%, and PLX by 1.31%, standing out among the blue chips. The trading volume of this basket suddenly decreased by 22% compared to yesterday morning, reaching only 3,166.3 billion VND, indicating a slowdown in money flow. On the positive side, only four stocks in this basket hit their intraday lows: MBB, down 1.02%; ACB, down 1.22%; FPT, down 1.63%; and TPB, down 1.38%. The remaining stocks witnessed bottom-fishing, although the recovery range was not significant.

As the second-quarter earnings season comes to an end, investors may worry about the lack of news flow and the upcoming “ghost month.” Notably, the recent hot stocks did not all have earnings support but were mainly driven by speculation. Therefore, when profit-taking occurs, the fluctuation range is often substantial. As for blue-chips, speculative money is less active, and the earnings are of good quality, resulting in smaller fluctuations. Overall, whether creating a rising wave in the index or maintaining a stable accumulation, the role of blue-chips remains decisive.

The end of the foreign investors’ consecutive net-selling streak is a positive signal as exchange rates begin to reflect the Fed’s message of potential rate cuts. However, it is still too early to confirm a reversal in this capital flow. As of yesterday, foreign investors had net sold over 1,186 billion VND on the HoSE this week and nearly 8,400 billion VND in July.