Preventing Speculators from Exploiting the Adjusted Land Price Reference to Inflate Prices
Regarding the recently adjusted land price reference issued by the People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, effective from October 31 to December 31, 2025, real estate experts have shared their insights on its potential implications.
Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), affirmed that the adjusted land price reference adheres to market-based pricing principles. The drafting committee diligently considered feedback from businesses and experts.
 HoREA Chairman predicts that the adjusted land price reference will contribute to rising housing prices. Photo: Minh Hien |
Comparing the issued reference to the draft version from late July, Mr. Chau acknowledged positive “reasonable” adjustments. For instance, in Hoc Mon District, the previous draft proposed a land price increase of 50.7 times the 2020 reference in certain areas, but the adjusted version mitigates this to nearly 40 times.
As for the implications, Mr. Chau mentioned that the adjusted land price reference ensures fairness between those who have fulfilled their financial obligations in the first ten months of this year and those who will do so from October 31 onward.
“The adjusted land price reference might not immediately impact the real estate market, as commercial housing projects currently determine land prices using the surplus method. However, after some time, when developers acquire land for their projects, people may expect higher prices than before, leading to increased housing costs,” Mr. Chau explained.
The HoREA Chairman recommended that authorities implement measures to curb the activities of “land speculators, unscrupulous businesses,” as these entities might exploit the adjusted land price reference for speculative purposes and price manipulation.
Will Land Prices Surge by 50% within a Year?
Mr. Tran Khanh Quang, a real estate expert, pointed out that according to the 2024 Land Law, land prices should align with market rates. As land prices in the city have already undergone significant changes compared to the 2020 reference, adjustments were necessary.
Compared to the 2020 reference, the adjusted land prices are, on average, four to thirty-five times higher. This revision affects almost all real estate types and market segments.
However, Mr. Quang noted that the most impacted real estate type is suburban land plots. The upward adjustment in the reference will likely lead to corresponding increases in land plot prices.
“This is inevitable,” Mr. Quang asserted. “In the next three to six months, land plot prices are expected to rise by 20-30% compared to the current rates. Subsequently, in the next six months to a year, prices may surge by 30-50%.”
 A land subdivision project in Binh Chanh District, Ho Chi Minh City. Photo: L.H.P. |
The next most affected real estate type is terraced houses priced below VND 7 billion. Following the surge in land plot prices, terraced house prices are also anticipated to climb.
Regarding commercial housing projects, Mr. Quang explained that the increased land prices would challenge developers in acquiring land through transfer of land use rights from residents, as compensation costs would escalate. Consequently, housing prices within these projects would also rise.
“The impact of the new land price reference on the real estate market is not yet entirely clear. Still, in the past few months, some developers have launched new projects at relatively high prices. It is possible that these projects are leveraging the adjusted land price reference to justify their pricing,” Mr. Quang analyzed.
Discussing investor sentiment, the expert suggested that those hoarding residential land plots with legal land-use rights would likely hold onto their assets, anticipating further price increases. In contrast, investors holding agricultural land plots might feel uncertain.
On the other hand, apartment investors are benefiting significantly from the land price adjustments.
Mr. Quang also observed that “market transactions are currently dominated by apartments. Not only are new condominium projects being launched, but prices in the secondary apartment market are also continuously rising.”
Anh Phuong
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