The “Beautiful” Picture of Vietnam’s Economy, Painting a New GDP Story Equivalent to a European Developed Nation

Vietnam’s economic picture for the first ten months of 2024 is bright, with notable achievements across various sectors.

According to the regular October meeting of the Government, the socio-economic situation in October and the first ten months of 2024 continued its positive trend and was better than in September. Overall, the ten-month period outperformed the same period last year in most fields.

Positive Economic Growth

The economy maintained its positive growth momentum across all three sectors. The agricultural sector continued its stable growth. The industrial sector followed a positive trend, with a 4% increase from September and a 7% rise year-on-year; cumulatively, it grew by 8.3% in the ten months (compared to a 0.5% increase in the same period last year). The service sector saw a significant increase; total retail sales of goods and services consumption rose by 8.5%. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October 2024 reached 51.2 points, indicating a continued expansion in production.

Macroeconomic stability was maintained, with inflation under control and major balances ensured. The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.78%. Exchange rates and interest rates remained generally stable. Energy security and food security were guaranteed (rice exports reached nearly 7.8 million tons, with a turnover of nearly US$4.9 billion, up 10.2% and 23.5% respectively compared to the same period last year); labor supply and demand were also basically balanced.

Exports continued to rise, resulting in a substantial trade surplus. October exports increased by 4.4% compared to September and by 10.1% year-on-year; cumulatively, exports grew by 14.9% in the ten months (the domestic sector increased by 20.7%, and the FDI sector by 12.8%); imports rose by 16.8%; and the trade surplus stood at US$23.31 billion.

Tourism rebounded strongly. International visitors in October reached 1.42 million, a 27.6% increase; cumulatively, the ten-month figure reached 14.1 million, a 41.3% rise.

State budget revenue increased significantly, with the ten-month figure reaching 97.2% of the estimate, a 17.3% rise compared to the same period last year (while tax, fee, and charge exemptions, reductions, and extensions amounted to VND 149.1 trillion). Public debt, government debt, foreign debt, and overspending were all lower than the set limits.

Development investment yielded positive results. In the first ten months, the disbursement of public investment capital reached 52.29% of the plan. FDI attraction reached US$27.26 billion, a 1.9% increase and the highest since 2019; FDI realization reached US$19.58 billion, an 8.8% rise and the highest in the last five years.

Business development continued to recover, with 22,900 newly established and reopened enterprises in October, a 29.1% increase compared to September and a 7% rise year-on-year; cumulatively, there were 202,300 newly established and reopened enterprises in the ten months, a 9.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

Emphasis on Social and Cultural Development

Social and cultural fields received attention, and social welfare was ensured. People received support in the form of 21,800 tons of rice. In October, 95.4% of households reported stable or higher incomes than in the same period last year. Traffic accidents decreased across all three criteria.

Administrative reforms, especially the reduction and simplification of administrative procedures, digital transformation, Proposal 06, and anti-corruption, anti-wastefulness, and anti-negative behavior efforts were promoted.

Political and social stability was maintained, national defense and security were strengthened, social order and safety were ensured, international integration and foreign relations were enhanced, and the country’s prestige and position were elevated. The relationship with the UAE was upgraded to a Comprehensive Partnership, and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed.

High Evaluation of 2024 GDP Growth

Commenting on the socio-economic situation over the past ten months, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang from the National Economics University shared, “The picture of Vietnam’s economy in the first ten months is very positive, and I believe that Vietnam’s economy will be very optimistic in the future. This is also one of the foundations for foreign investment in Vietnam.

I think that the last two months of 2024 are a sprint, and we can create new records never seen before in the history of Vietnam’s renewal process.”

With the achievements made, many international organizations and experts continue to highly appreciate the results and prospects of Vietnam’s economy. Standard Chartered has upgraded its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2024 from 6% to 6.8%.

“Although the growth momentum has slowed since the third quarter, it remains stable, with a projected growth rate of 6.9% for the fourth quarter of 2024,” said Standard Chartered in its latest economic update report on Vietnam.

HSBC also revised up its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam from 6.5% to 7% in 2024, becoming the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN and generating new GDP equivalent to that of the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) predicted that Vietnam would achieve the highest growth rate in ASEAN+3 in 2024 and 2025.