The stock market closed July with a correction after a nearly four-month rally. Last week, the VN-Index fell 2.35% to 1,495 points. Notably, the July 29 session saw a record liquidity with 2.7 billion shares traded, totaling nearly VND72,000 billion. This was one of the highest liquidity sessions in history.
Meanwhile, foreign investors net sold strongly, with a value of up to VND4,750 billion on the HoSE alone. This move further reinforced the cautious sentiment among domestic investors.
Last week, the VN-Index briefly touched the peak region at 1,566 points but failed to sustain the rally due to profit-taking at the medium-term resistance level. Other factors such as margin tightening, exchange rates, and interbank interest rates also played a role.
The market has ended the phase of receiving second-quarter business results.
Ms. Nguyen Phuong Nga, an analyst at Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), opined that the market is accumulating after a volatile week. On the bright side, cash flow remains flexible, despite the clear differentiation among sectors. Some stocks with unique stories or positive second-quarter results continue to attract cash flow. However, the large-cap group lacks consensus, keeping the risk of volatility alive.
According to Ms. Nga, investors should maintain a safe margin ratio; continue holding stocks that are recovering from the support zone, or consider increasing the proportion during short-term corrections. Investors with high cash ratios can allocate partially to stocks attracting speculative cash flow, with further upside potential compared to the nearest resistance zone.
Viet Capital Securities’ (VFS) analysts suggested two scenarios for the market in August. In the more optimistic scenario, improved buying power helps the VN-Index surpass the current resistance zone and continue its uptrend. Investors can allocate capital to stocks signaling trend continuation or breaking out from accumulation zones, accompanied by high liquidity.
In the other scenario, profit-taking at higher prices pulls the market back into the 1,450-1,550 range. For this scenario, short-term investors can employ a range-bound strategy, buying at support and selling at resistance zones.
Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) analysts forecasted that the VN-Index would maintain its short-term uptrend by holding the support area around 1,480 points. The 1,500-point mark is now a crucial psychological resistance, and the index will end its uptrend if it falls below this support.
For the VN30 group, the market faces resistance at the 2021 peak region of 1,540-1,590 points. This resistance zone warrants close monitoring in the coming sessions.
The market has concluded the phase of receiving second-quarter business results, and August marks a relatively quiet period in terms of news flow. Stock valuation and market expectations will hinge on Q4 business prospects and the impact of official tax policies.
Analysts caution that new tax rates will directly affect companies’ financial results. Thus, the market may witness strong differentiation, requiring time to establish a new price baseline. Cash flow will likely favor stocks with solid fundamentals, industry leaders, and long-term beneficiaries. Investors are advised to maintain a reasonable portfolio mix and refrain from excessive margin trading during this phase.
“Technical Analysis for August 4th: Proceeding With Caution”
The VN-Index and HNX-Index both climbed, while trading volume dipped compared to yesterday’s morning session, indicating investors remain cautious.
Vietstock Weekly 04-08/08/2025: Profits Taking Pressure Intensifies
The VN-Index stalled in its upward trajectory last week as trading volumes hit an all-time high, indicating significant profit-taking pressure. The index is currently retesting the old peak from April 2022 (1,480-1,530 points) while the Stochastic Oscillator has signaled a sell-off within the overbought territory. Investors should be cautious of the potential for further corrections if the indicator exits this zone in the coming period.
“Front-Running the Upgrade ‘Wave’: Foreign Investors Buy Over 8 Trillion VND in July”
The VN-Index witnessed a remarkable journey in July, reaching an unprecedented closing high of 1,557.42 points. This achievement can be largely attributed to the significant net foreign buying of over VND 8.1 trillion, with 14 net buying sessions during the month. As a result, the net selling scale from the beginning of the year was narrowed to nearly VND 29.4 trillion.
Market Ranking Makeover: Eye-Candy for Investors, Substantial Strength to Keep Them Hooked.
“For Vietnam’s stock market to attract large-scale investment funds post-upgrade, the quality of listed companies needs to be a key area of improvement, especially regarding transparency, disclosure capabilities, and ESG practices.”
The Hunt for the Whale’s Money Trail: Proprietary Trading Rebounds to Net Buying, Foreigners Dump Nearly VND 2,500 Billion
The VN-Index witnessed a significant shift as foreign investors offloaded nearly VND 2,500 billion, contrasting the self-enterprise sector’s rebound with net buying of over VND 292 billion. This push and pull of financial forces resulted in the index surrendering the 1,500-point mark during the August 1st session, extending the foreign sector’s net sell-off to a substantial VND 4,700 billion in the last two sessions.
