Proposing Two Main Scenarios
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has recently released a draft for consultation on adjustments to the Power Development Plan for the 2021-2030 period, with a vision towards 2050 (referred to as the Power Plan VIII adjustment).
In this adjustment draft, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes three scenarios for electricity demand corresponding to economic growth scenarios.
Low Scenario: Electricity demand by 2030 is 452 billion kWh; by 2035, it is 611.2 billion kWh.
Base Scenario: By 2030, it is 500.3 billion kWh; by 2035, it reaches 711.1 billion kWh.
High Scenario: By 2030, it is 557.7 billion kWh, and by 2035, it is 856.2 billion kWh.
With these scenarios, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes two main scenarios for calculating the development of power sources and grids.
The operation of nuclear power plants is of great importance to Vietnam’s power source structure. Illustration.
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Scenario 1: Ninh Thuan I Nuclear Power Plant (2x1200MW) is put into operation in the period of 2031-2035, and Ninh Thuan II (2x1200MW) is operated in the period of 2036-2040. Along with this, 3 LNG plants with undetermined investors will be operated after 2030, and Blue Whale gas is expected to be brought ashore in the period of 2031-2035. No new LNG sources will be developed, and imports from China will increase by 300 MW.
With this scenario, the Ministry of Industry and Trade assesses that due to the mixed-cycle gas turbine plants being put into operation in the last years of the period and many sources being delayed, it is necessary to promote early investment in small hydropower, wind, solar, and battery storage power, as well as flexible thermal power sources compared to Power Plan VIII. The scale of power imported from Laos will increase from 4 GW to 6 GW by 2030, mainly in the projects imported to the North and North Central regions.
In the period of 2031-2050, it is forecasted that the investment rates for wind, solar, and battery storage power sources will tend to decrease significantly. The development of renewable energy sources combined with battery storage is more economical, so the power system will depend largely on renewable energy. The proportion of renewable energy (including hydropower) will increase from 50% in 2035 to 83% in 2050.
Scenario 2: The two nuclear power plants in Ninh Thuan are operated in the period of 2031-2035, and at the same time, all 14 LNG plants are operated in the period of 2026-2030. Blue Whale gas is expected to be brought ashore in the period of 2031-2035, allowing the development of new LNG sources from 2030, and imports from China are similar to Scenario 1.
Renewable energy will account for the majority in the future. |
In this case, the Ministry of Industry and Trade calculates that an additional investment of 30 GW of solar power, 5.7 GW of small and medium-sized hydropower, 6 GW of onshore wind power, 12.5 GW of battery storage power, 2.7 GW of flexible thermal power, 1.4 GW of biomass, waste, and other renewable energy sources is needed. In addition, imports from China will increase by 3 GW, and the scale of power imported from Laos will increase from 4.3 GW to 6.8 GW by 2030.
By 2035, the load demand will increase by 24 GW compared to Power Plan VIII, and at the same time, the new LNG mixed-cycle gas turbine sources will increase by 7 GW in the period of 2031-2035 in the North. Flexible thermal power sources will increase by 3 GW compared to Power Plan VIII.
By 2050, in addition to the 4,800 MW nuclear power source in Ninh Thuan, Vietnam will have an additional 5 GW of nuclear power in the North-Central region and 8.4 GW of LNG mixed-cycle gas turbine sources in the North. Wind, solar, and battery storage power sources will continue to increase significantly compared to Power Plan VIII.
Thus, with these scenarios, Vietnam can operate its first nuclear power plant as early as 2031 and as late as 2035.
Three Potential Regions for Nuclear Power Development
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, there are eight potential locations for large-scale nuclear power plant construction, with each location having the potential to develop approximately 4-6 GW. Nuclear power can be considered for construction in three regions: South-Central (about 25-30 GW), Central-Central (about 10 GW), and North-Central (about 4-5 GW).
Up to now, only two locations, Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, have had their site planning announced for nuclear power plant construction. Some other potential locations (two sites in Quang Ngai and one site in Binh Dinh) are considered potential for developing four large-scale nuclear power units. However, due to the lack of announced planning, after 10 years, these sites will need to be reviewed and evaluated, and there may be many socio-economic changes and economic development in these areas.
In addition to the two scenarios above, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also proposes sensitivity analysis scenarios when changing input parameters that affect the structure of power sources, electricity prices, and inter-regional grids in the future.
Previously, the Prime Minister requested the Ministry of Industry and Trade to finalize the Power Plan VIII amendment and submit it to the Government before February 28th.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, after nearly two years of implementation, Power Plan VIII has revealed many shortcomings, such as investment results in power sources and grids not yet achieving their targets and electricity price mechanisms not being attractive enough, causing difficulties in mobilizing capital for power source and grid development. Especially, the government sets a target of economic growth of over 8% in 2025 and a two-digit rate in the period of 2026-2030.
This requires a 1.5-fold increase in electricity, with an average annual growth rate of 12% to over 16% (corresponding to an additional 8,000 – 10,000 MW each year). This poses a significant challenge, and if quick solutions to develop power sources, especially base load, green, clean, and sustainable power, are not implemented promptly, there is a potential risk of a serious power shortage, especially during the period from 2026 to 2028.
Duong Hung
– 10:16 02/06/2025
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