MARKET REVIEW FOR THE WEEK OF 01/13/2025 – 01/17/2025
During the week of 01/13/2025 – 01/17/2025, the VN-Index gained and recovered after consecutive sharp declines in previous weeks. Additionally, the index rose above the 20-week SMA. However, trading volume has remained below the 20-week average since November 2024, indicating that market participation is yet to show positive signs.
Currently, the MACD indicator is giving a sell signal and has crossed below the zero threshold, suggesting that the short-term outlook remains pessimistic.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Trend and Price Oscillation Analysis
VN-Index – Formation of Three White Candles pattern
On January 17, 2025, the VN-Index rose and formed a Three White Candles pattern, indicating the presence of optimistic investor sentiment.
Additionally, the Stochastic Oscillator has emerged from the oversold region and continues to climb after providing a buy signal, suggesting a fairly positive short-term outlook.
However, the index remains below the Middle Bollinger Band, and trading volume is below the 20-day average. If liquidity improves in the coming sessions, the short-term recovery trend will be reinforced.
HNX-Index – Stochastic Oscillator has given a buy signal
On January 17, 2025, the HNX-Index rose and formed a Three White Candles pattern, while the Stochastic Oscillator continued its upward trajectory after providing a buy signal, indicating a fairly optimistic short-term outlook.
Additionally, the MACD indicator is narrowing the gap with the Signal line after previously giving a sell signal. If a buy signal reappears, the recovery prospect will be more sustainable.
Money Flow Analysis
Fluctuations in Smart Money Flow: The Negative Volume Index of the VN-Index has crossed above the 20-day EMA. If this condition persists in the next session, the risk of a sudden downturn (thrust down) will diminish.
Foreign Capital Flow Fluctuations: Foreign investors continued to sell on January 17, 2025. If foreign investors maintain this action in the coming sessions, the situation will become even more pessimistic.
Vietstock Consulting Analysis Department
– 17:28 01/19/2025
The Caution Quotient Rises
The VN-Index declined, slipping further below the Middle Bollinger Band. This downward movement, coupled with trading volumes remaining below the 20-day average, indicates a cautious sentiment among investors. However, the MACD indicator offers a glimmer of hope as it narrows its gap with the Signal Line, suggesting a potential buy signal in upcoming sessions. Should this materialize, it would alleviate concerns of an immediate short-term correction.
“Banking Stocks Rebound: Foreign Investors Still Dumping FPT and VNM”
Liquidity weakened this morning, but demand for high-priced stocks remained robust. The banking sector played a pivotal role in the VN-Index’s impressive recovery, surging past the 1260-point mark. Most of the blue-chips that experienced heavy selling yesterday staged a strong rebound, paving the way for a more vigorous rally in the mid and small-cap segments. Notably, foreign investors persisted in their net selling activities, focusing their attention on FPT and VNM.
The Cash Flows into Mid and Small-Cap Stocks
Although the VN-Index closed today with a modest gain of 0.39%, nearly a hundred stocks outperformed, rising over 1% against their reference prices. The large-cap VN30 basket contributed only 6 tickers to this group, with the remainder being mid and small-cap stocks. Notably, several of these high-performing stocks also featured among the market’s leaders in terms of liquidity.
The Foreign Sell-Off: A $1.4 Billion Rout Sends Blue-Chip Stocks Tumbling
The VN-Index remained lackluster in the afternoon session, but many resilient stocks gained strength. The index was heavily impacted by the drag of large-cap stocks, with the VN30-Index plunging to a 16-session low as foreign selling pressure weighed down on these stocks. FPT took a significant hit, evaporating 5.15% in value.
The Red-Hot Market: FPT in the Eye of the Storm, Foreign Outflows Galore
The investor community reacted rather negatively on the first trading session of the Year of the Wood Snake, as Vietnamese markets reopened after a two-week Lunar New Year holiday amidst a volatile international backdrop. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index fell sharply, and this was reflected in the performance of FPT Corporation, which faced the brunt of the selling pressure. The stock tumbled as global tech stocks experienced a broad-based decline, with the impact of this trend finally catching up to the Vietnamese market.
