The Cash Flow Conundrum: A Twist in the Tale for Vietnam’s Top Power Company Stock

The session on March 18 unexpectedly witnessed a strong acceleration in the POW stock – PV Power. This stock quickly rose to the ceiling of 6.61%, reaching VND 12,900/share, with very vibrant trading. The trading volume by mid-morning was close to 20 million units – the highest in eight months.

The strong rise in the POW stock pushed PV Power’s market capitalization to more than VND 30,200 billion, continuing to hold the top position in the electricity industry on the Vietnamese stock market. This figure has increased by nearly 8% compared to the beginning of 2025 but is still about 36% lower than the record high set in early 2022.

Currently, PV Power is one of the largest power generators in Vietnam, holding 11% of the country’s electricity capacity. The Corporation currently operates seven power plants with a total capacity of 4,205MW, including gas, coal, and hydropower.

Most recently, this giant in the electricity industry announced its business results for the first two months of 2025. PV Power said that February was the dry season in the Northern, North-Central, and Southern regions, transitioning from the rainy season to the dry season in the South-Central region. The average temperature across the country was approximately the same as the long-term average for the same period. The full-market electricity price (FMP) in February was estimated at about VND 1,400/kWh.

In the first two months of 2025, the output reached 2,439 million kWh, and revenue was estimated at VND 4,583 billion. Vung Ang 1 power plant still made the most significant contribution, followed by the Ca Mau 1&2 power plants.

Entering March, PV Power planned to reach an electricity output of 1.74 billion kWh and a revenue target of VND 3,341 billion. The main contribution will come from Vung Ang 1 power plant with VND 1,249 billion, followed by Ca Mau 1&2 power plants with an expected revenue of thousands of billions of VND; then Nhon Trach 1&2 power plants also increased sharply.

Updating on the progress of the Nhon Trach 3&4 project, PV Power said that on February 25, 2025, PV Power signed the GSA and sent it to PV Gas to finalize the signing of the LNG gas purchase contract for the commercial operation phase of the power plant. As of February 2025, the overall progress of the EPC package was estimated at 96% completion, and the enterprise will continue to arrange capital and negotiate gas purchase contracts for the project according to the schedule.

In a recent report, Asean Securities assessed that coal-fired power remains a bright spot in 2025 due to high consumption demand. In the period of 2025-2026, Vung Ang 1 power plant is expected to maintain an optimal output mobilization rate thanks to the strong growth of national electricity consumption, forecasted to reach 9.3% in the period of 2025-2030. Notably, the Northern region continuously recorded the highest load growth rate in the country (>10%), while the pace of investing in new capacity in this area is relatively slow.

Also this year, POW is expected to implement the Nhon Trach 3&4 LNG gas-fired power project with a total capacity of 1,642 MW and an average electricity output of about 9 billion kWh/year. After going into operation, the project will help increase POW’s total gas-fired power capacity to 4,342 MW (accounting for 54% of the country’s gas-fired power structure).

In addition, according to forecasts from IRI, La Nina will end in the first quarter of 2025 and then turn to a neutral phase. Moreover, the ratio of upper reservoir water level/dead water level at large hydropower plants is recovering strongly. Therefore, Asean Securities believes that hydropower will benefit in the first quarter of 2025 and then stabilize throughout 2025.