Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank
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The Vietnamese Dong (VND) has followed the broader trend of Asian emerging market currencies over the past three years, influenced by the strong USD environment. Despite low market volatility, external factors such as trade dynamics and global economic conditions could continue to impact exchange rates. In light of these factors, Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered Bank, stated: “Standard Chartered has revised its USD/VND exchange rate forecast, raising the mid-year forecast to 26,000 (from 25,450 previously) and the 2025-end forecast to 25,700 (from 25,000).”
“The near-term outlook for the Vietnamese economy remains cautious and awaits further clarity on US trade policies, given Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the US. Additionally, Vietnam has expressed its willingness to import more agricultural products from the US, among other goods”, added Mr. Leelahaphan.
The Vietnamese government has adjusted its 2025 GDP growth target to at least 8%, up from 6.5-7%, with expected inflation of 4.5-5%. This adjustment aims to create room for flexible monetary policy implementation. The stronger growth outlook could help maintain low-interest rates in the near term. Standard Chartered forecasts that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in Q2 2025 to tackle rising inflation.
– 12:01 26/03/2025
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