On the macroeconomic front, ABS Research indicates that yields on US Treasury bonds rose after news of retaliatory tariffs, making it more challenging to manage the VND/USD exchange rate as US interest rates surpass those in Vietnam. This influences the flow of international capital back to the US from Vietnam. Additionally, Vietnam has to purchase more USD to meet future increased import demands from the US, aiming to improve trade balance with the country, which also puts pressure on the exchange rate. Gold prices have also surged due to the increase in global gold prices and the appreciation of the VND/USD exchange rate. These factors negatively impact the inflow of funds into the stock market.
Amid these challenges, Vietnam has implemented numerous policies to mobilize and consolidate internal resources through public investment, credit easing, institutional reforms, and a focus on developing science and technology (Resolution 57) and the private sector (Resolution 68). Other supportive measures include tax and fee reductions, expanded social security, and incentives for businesses and consumers.
A positive development is the Fed’s recent direct auction purchases of 10-year US Treasury bonds worth over $14 billion, leading the market to anticipate an early end to quantitative tightening (QT). Should this action persist for the next 3-6 months, it could mark a policy turning point for the Fed. Moreover, the Fed is expected to execute another interest rate cut in the June or July meeting (followed by two more cuts in October and December 2025), alleviating exchange rate and monetary pressures on the global economy.
ABS Research believes that the next 2-3 months will witness crucial macroeconomic developments, constituting economic turning points for Vietnam, especially concerning the outcome of trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US. Consequently, significant opportunities may arise in the stock market, which often reacts promptly to economic news.
In terms of valuation, with the recovery in April and early May, the VN-Index’s P/E ratio for the last four quarters rose from 10.86x on April 9, 2025, to 12.12x on May 9, 2025, still below the three-year average of 13.13x.
Large-cap stocks in the VN30 have a P/E ratio of 10.89x, significantly lower than mid-cap and small-cap stocks in the VNMID (15.06x) and VNSML (13.41x). These P/E levels are below their three-year averages, indicating that current valuations remain attractive. Specifically, the VN30 index’s P/E is just slightly above the -2 standard deviation of the three-year average at 10.51x.
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Commenting on the stock market in May, ABS Research states that this is a period when the market and economic information are not yet very positive. The short-term market is recovering positively, while the medium term is not yet clear. ABS Research proposes the following two scenarios:
Scenario 1 with a high probability; during this period, when retaliatory tariffs are temporarily suspended, in the short term, the VN-Index will maintain a positive momentum and increase to 1,250 – 1,266 – 1,280 points. If the VN-Index holds support at 1,200 – 1,225 points and the price is above the MA10-day, investors can continue to buy until a reversal factor appears at the upper resistance. Conversely, if the market’s overall cash flow remains weak, investors should reduce their positions if the market fails to hold support at level 1. Thus, the short-term trading scenario is within the 1,220 – 1,280-point range. Investors should hold and reduce positions if stocks fail to maintain the MA5/10-day moving average.
Scenario 2 with a low probability; more intense negative global economic and financial factors occur without significant improvements in trade agreement prospects. This could erode market psychological support and lead to continued downward pressure on deeper support levels. This scenario is unfavorable for the overall market but presents a buying opportunity for medium and long-term investors who can continue allocating capital on market corrections, as mentioned in previous reports.
Given the market forecast, ABS Research recommends that risk-taking investors adopt a short-term trading strategy, buying late and selling early within the short-term range of scenario 1. Investors can consider purchasing leading stocks in sectors, niche industries, and enterprises with evident advantages, demonstrating better trends and momentum than the overall market. In May, ABS Research suggests investing in export-oriented sectors, ports, banks, fertilizers, retail, residential real estate, oil and gas, technology, and minerals.
Dong Tu
– 09:37 16/05/2025
The Great Bank Code “Flush”
The proprietary trading arms of securities companies offloaded a net sell value of VND1.92 trillion on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE).
The State of Business: Unveiling the Q1/2025 Performance of Nearly 1,000 Listed Enterprises
The combined net profits of listed companies rose an impressive 22.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. Real estate led the charge with a significant boost in profit margins, showcasing a thriving industry.
What’s the Strategy Behind Foreign Investors’ Sudden $6 Billion Stock Purchase in Vietnam?
After relentlessly selling for almost two years with a net value of VND 1.25 quadrillion, foreign investors have officially reverted to a net buying trend in the Vietnamese stock market, marked by a record-breaking buying session of VND 2,400 billion yesterday.
“Profit-Taking Pressure Mounts, Blue Chips Push VN-Index Down to Near 1,300 Points”
The sell-off by both domestic and foreign investors dominated Friday’s session, with the stock market breadth heavily skewed towards decliners. Foreign investors withdrew nearly VND 957 billion net, following three consecutive net buying sessions, and sold particularly heavily in the VN30 basket, offloading VND 1,127 billion. Only a few large-cap stocks managed to keep the VN-Index afloat, while banking stocks witnessed a steep decline across the board.
Foreign Capital Buys Nearly VND 900 Billion to Match Domestic Institutional Selling Orders
Today’s liquidity across the three exchanges reached a high of VND 27.8 trillion, indicating strong demand. Foreign investors net bought VND 889.5 billion, while domestic institutional investors net sold VND 1,034.2 billion.
