According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first four months of 2025, Vietnam exported over 3.4 million tons of rice, earning a turnover of US$1.76 billion. This reflects an increase of 8.1% in volume compared to the same period in 2024, but a decrease of 13.3% in value. The average export price dropped by approximately 20%, falling to around US$517 per ton. However, there are signs of recovery as prices started to rebound towards the end of April.

The Philippines remains Vietnam’s largest rice export market, consistently importing between 3 and 4 million tons annually. In 2025, the country is projected to import approximately 4.35 million tons of rice from Vietnam.

Côte d’Ivoire emerged as Vietnam’s second-largest rice export market during this period, with an impressive growth of 173% compared to the previous year, reaching a value of US$210 million.

Notably, China significantly increased its rice imports from Vietnam, with nearly 130,000 tons of rice worth US$67 million imported in April alone. Cumulatively, for the first four months of the year, China purchased over 360,000 tons of rice from Vietnam, totaling US$182 million. This represents a substantial increase of 114% in volume and 31% in value compared to the same period last year. However, the export price to China decreased by 12%.

Currently, only around 20 Vietnamese enterprises are permitted to export rice to China (out of approximately 200 licensed companies).

Regarding future prospects, representatives from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shared that despite global market fluctuations, Vietnamese rice maintains its competitive advantage due to its consistent quality and the adaptability of domestic enterprises. With potential supply disruptions from major exporters like India and Thailand due to weather and policy factors, Vietnam needs to closely monitor market dynamics to implement flexible strategies. Additionally, expanding into new markets and capitalizing on emerging opportunities are crucial.

The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) forecasts that rice exports in 2025 may reach 7.5 million tons, a decrease from the record high of over 9 million tons in 2024. While the export volume might decline, focusing on high-quality rice varieties like ST24, ST25, and fragrant rice can still yield positive foreign currency earnings.

According to the latest projections from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam is expected to import up to 4 million tons of rice in 2025, positioning it as the second-largest rice importer worldwide, second only to the Philippines.

Conversely, Vietnam is also projected to overtake Thailand and become the second-largest rice exporter globally in 2025. Estimates suggest that Vietnam will export approximately 7.9 million tons of rice, surpassing Thailand’s 7 million tons. This ascension can be attributed to strong demand from traditional markets like the Philippines and the return of Chinese importers.

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