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The Flow of Funds: Is the Market Still Poised for a Breakthrough at the Old Peak?

25 May, 2025

Two fairly good acceleration sessions mid-week pushed the VN-Index to the old peak region of around 1340 points, with a high of 1331.93 points. However, the market lost steam on the last two days of the week, with liquidity unexpectedly dropping.

Experts assessed that caution has become more apparent as leading stocks show signs of fatigue. In reality, the VN-Index last week was strongly influenced by the VIC pair, up 12.4%, and VHM, up 10.8%. Just these two stocks brought in 34.9 points, even though the total increase of the index for the whole week was 13.07 points. This means the strength of the two main stocks compensated significantly for the many other declining stocks.

Nevertheless, experts disagreed on whether the market is being distributed. The sessions that reversed the decline with high liquidity and the sessions that increased with lower liquidity were still not much different, and this is only an early warning signal. High liquidity is perceived as strong trading of stocks in a positive growth trend.

From this difference in perspective, experts also appreciated the ability of the market to fluctuate sideways or possibly retreat slightly while waiting for information. However, there will still be a rotation of capital as many fundamentally good stocks with their own stories are still at low prices. Short-term speculation will be much more difficult.

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

The market had another T+ increase last week, and the VN-Index entered the March 2025 peak region as expected. However, in the last 7 sessions, there have been days of low-liquidity increases and high-liquidity reversal declines. Is this a sign that the distribution process is taking place?

I admit that the current market development requires more caution, as the buying power to push prices up to high levels has slowed down, while the selling pressure to take profits is real. However, I think this is a phase of high filtration and selection from the market, not a distribution process.

Nguyen Thi My Lien

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities

The market has returned to the March 2025 peak before the countervailing tax information was announced. The VN-Index has recovered quite strongly despite the lack of supportive market information to reconquer the 1320-point mark. The main driving force came from the Q1/2025 business results of enterprises, especially the “Vin” codes. However, I think that the 1320-point mark is a huge challenge for the market to continue to maintain its current uptrend as liquidity shows signs of declining in the recent sessions and the distribution process at the peak is taking place.

Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Officer, KBSV Securities

On the daily frame, the appearance of intertwined adjustment candles with relatively higher volume also shows that the distribution pressure is winning, especially when some momentum indicators have created negative divergences. Although these signals are only early warning signals, however, this shows that the opportunity for the index to continue its recovery momentum is narrowing, and the index will be at risk of short-term reversal when approaching the next resistance levels.

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Joint Stock Company

If we look at the percentage of stocks above MA50 (the threshold for confirming the medium-term trend), it has not improved above 50%, meaning that most codes are still trading below the medium-term resistance, only a few outstanding stocks have overcome and traded in the upper channel. Liquidity is contributed by the group of stocks trading in this upper channel, while the weakened groups of stocks in the lower channel will still perform poorly and have low matching orders as capital has not really found them yet.

Tran Long Huan – Senior Director of Individual Customers, Rong Viet Securities

The VN-Index has just experienced 3 consecutive weeks of increases with strong upward support from the “Vin Group” and the group of TCB STB banks… The index broke through the 1240 – 128x – 1320 point barriers in turn. In the third week, it was clear that pulling green was the end, “stepping down” was the waiting to catch up. The VN-Index fluctuated during the session and then pulled strongly at the end, shaking off investors, holding goods always being afraid of adjusting and dropping goods passively, holding money not daring to put down when the index is about to touch strong resistance levels.

Money Flow Trend: Fluctuate to Continue the Journey of Testing the Old Peak?

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

A rather unfavorable reality last week was that although the VN-Index climbed to near the old peak, stocks did not increase much due to the phenomenon of pulling the main stocks. The opportunity to choose strong stocks is getting rarer, while there are still stocks that are increasing well. How do you evaluate short-term speculative opportunities at this time?

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Joint Stock Company

I agree that it will be difficult to choose stocks with good performance in this phase, as the current differentiation is strong. The percentage of stocks above MA50 is still below 50%, meaning that most codes have not been able to overcome medium-term resistance and are trading in the lower channel, only a few leading stocks are trading in the upper channel. However, I think that if we can grasp the structure of movement and rely on reliable indicators, there will always be short-term trading opportunities. Typically, I noticed a pretty good increase last week in the Utilities (Electricity) and Public Investment groups, which brought some good profits.

Tran Long Huan – Senior Director of Individual Customers, Rong Viet Securities

A reality is that the VN-Index is approaching the old peak, but quite a few fundamentally good stocks are still holding the equivalent price when the index is at 1,100 points. As the market is entering a large “uptrend”, I think this is a good opportunity for investors to capture fundamentally good stocks with their own stories and prices near the support level. I think next week, capital will flow strongly into stocks near the support level, specifically the group of banks such as ACB, EIB, VIB; the group of real estate stocks such as HDG, VCG, TCH, KDH; some codes with their own stories such as HAG, PET; the group of securities touching the support level such as VIX around 13, VCI around 35.8-36…

I think that next week there will be selling pressure on the “Vin Group” and some bank codes STB, VCB, TCB, CTG. Short-term capital shifting into new main stocks will support the VN-Index to maintain its position, which may include MSN, VJC, GAS, SAB… At this point, when the index is close to the old peak of 134x… investors need to be calm and observe and choose stocks carefully, avoid fomo.

I think that the 1320-point mark is a huge challenge for the market to continue to maintain its current uptrend as liquidity shows signs of declining in the recent sessions and the distribution process at the peak is taking place.

Nguyen Viet Quang

Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Officer, KBSV Securities

In my opinion, the phenomenon of “pulling the main stocks” makes short-term speculative opportunities narrower but not lost. The group of potential stocks focuses on (1) midcap codes with outstanding business results in Q1, (2) industries benefiting from policies, and (3) stocks with technical breakthroughs of resistance accompanied by a sudden increase in liquidity.

However, the risk is high because the market is easily adjusted when the VN-Index touches resistance. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on surfing with a short time frame (1-3 sessions), place a tight stop-loss order (3-5%) and prioritize stocks with good liquidity.

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities

In my opinion, this is not the time for investors to have short-term surfing opportunities when the main stocks of the market in the recent period have increased significantly in amplitude such as VIC increased by nearly 130% since March 2025 or VHM increased by nearly 80% at the same time. Some other blue-chip stocks also recovered 20-30% since the announcement of the countervailing tax. Especially when the VN-Index is testing the strong resistance level of 1320 points, the opportunity at this time is not much.

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

In the previous exchange, you also did not expect the market to be able to break through the old peak at the present stage because the information support is not strong enough. The third round of tax negotiations is expected to be held in June in Vietnam, with a deadline of early July, which means that the information gap will continue. What is the most likely scenario for the market at this time, adjustment or sideways?

Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Officer, KBSV Securities

I assess that it is more likely that the market is currently sideways. The main reason is that the information support is still not strong enough for the market to break through the old peak, as mentioned earlier. In this context, investors tend to be cautious, waiting for the results of the negotiations, making it difficult for the market to fluctuate greatly. However, factors such as stable macro-economy or supportive policies from the Government can keep the market from falling deeply. Therefore, instead of falling deeply, I lean towards the possibility that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range.

It is likely that next week, the group of securities/real estate and small banks will trade positively, attracting capital.

Tran Long Huan

Tran Long Huan – Senior Director of Individual Customers, Rong Viet Securities

In the previous sharing, I predicted that the VN-Index would head towards breaking the old peak, and I still maintain the view that the peak of this year is around the threshold of 1430-1460 points. In the short term, the VN-Index is heading towards the fourth consecutive week of increase, officially pushing the market to a new price level, and liquidity will be positively improved. Currently, capital is flowing into the “Vin Group” and some main stocks that have not been able to distribute yet. Tax-related information has somehow been reflected in the prices of affected industries…

I think that in the short term, temporarily avoid the groups of affected industries when the market is not yet clear, focus on the good stocks, the stocks with their own stories as mentioned above.

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities

Until the results of the countervailing tax negotiations with the US are announced, the market is highly likely to go sideways within the fluctuation range of 1220 points – 1280 points. Therefore, in my opinion, the VN-Index will adjust to this region and continue to go sideways with average liquidity and capital rotating among industries. The cautious psychology of the market and the information gap can cause the index to fall to the support level of 1220 points if negative information appears.

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Joint Stock Company

I think the market has entered the cooling-down phase after a good recovery period and reached the expected target of 1320 – 1330 points. However, I assess that the adjustment process will be healthy. The index may fluctuate a lot due to the impact of large-cap stocks, especially in the Vingroup group, but the general level of stocks has found a certain balance.

I expect capital to shift, lowering from large-cap stocks and returning to Midcap to create more momentum. The short-term buying area is set around 1290 – 1300 points, investors can pay attention to this, a lower retreat level will send a risk signal, while stable trading will tend to consolidate the current uptrend.

The market is in the consolidation phase, lacking a breakthrough driving force. I will keep a low proportion, observe more, and wait for positive information to adjust the strategy.

Nghiem Sy Tien

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

Last week, you significantly reduced the stock ratio, and indeed, the price of most codes did not increase much afterwards. Liquidity dropped on the last day of the week, can it be understood that the majority has started to choose the strategy of standing outside and observing; or selling pressure does not appear, those who want to take profits have finished?

Tran Long Huan – Senior Director of Individual Customers, Rong Viet Securities

The VN-Index went up quickly, shaking off passive investors, holding money not daring to buy, so the majority are currently missing the boat, not choosing to stand outside. Next week, the midcap group will be pulled, and then the crowd will participate in the game. In the past few sessions, we have seen selling pressure from the securities/banking/GEX-related stocks group… but the selling pressure is not strong, selling at good prices, and buying low, distributing slowly… It is likely that next week, the group of securities/real estate and small banks will trade positively, attracting capital. Investors may be worried that liquidity at the end of last week was quite low, the VN-Index lost the 1320-point mark and is at risk of adjusting to the support level of 1300-1308 points. In fact, the selling pressure is not widespread, but only focuses on some groups, while the stocks that the crowd holds have not increased much… Next week, I forecast that the VN-Index will fluctuate around 1305-1330 points. The index may increase suddenly and break the peak if there is consensus among the groups of banks/securities/real estate, while the “Vin Group” needs time to accumulate.

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities

I assess that low liquidity at the peak and