The Soaring Prices of Provincial Land: A Mystifying Phenomenon

Land prices in provinces neighboring Ho Chi Minh City, especially in areas that are being merged into the metropolis, have been fluctuating recently, with investors quietly snapping up land, leading to crowded notary public offices.

On May 22, many people were observed queuing at a notary office in Ba Ria-Vung Tau Province, with some arriving as early as 6 am but having to wait until the afternoon to complete their land-related procedures.

Land prices in this province have surged, with increases ranging from VND 200 million to VND 400 million compared to late 2024. Notably, some well-located land lots have seen their values soar by nearly VND 600 million within just two months. For instance, a 100-square-meter land lot in Phu My was offered for VND 2.35 billion in early March 2025, rising to VND 2.6 billion in April and recently being traded at VND 2.95 billion.

In Di An, Binh Duong Province, land prices have also witnessed a significant uptick compared to late last year. Land in projects has increased by 20-30 percent, while residential land has gone up by 10-20 percent. Despite a slowdown in market transactions compared to the first quarter of 2025, prices continue to climb.

Mr. T, a land investor, shared that land lots in Di An were commonly priced at VND 2.6-2.8 billion at the beginning of 2025, but it is now challenging to find lots priced below VND 3 billion. Land lots in projects with available red books have increased by at least VND 200-300 million, and some have even surged by VND 500 million within just three months. This rapid price appreciation has created challenges for investors in terms of transactions.

In Dong Nai Province, Nhon Trach and Long Thanh remain hotspots for real estate prices. Simultaneously, garden land in Dinh Quan and Cam My has also seen price increases compared to the previous year.

In Nhon Trach, transactions have slowed compared to the beginning of 2025, but prices have established a new benchmark. Land in projects with an area of 90 square meters has increased from VND 1.4 billion to VND 1.7-1.8 billion. Land with a roadside location has seen prices surge from VND 1.6 billion to VND 2.3 billion per lot. The most significant increases were recorded in January and February 2025, followed by a stagnation from the end of March 2025 until now. Although prices have stabilized, they are still 20-40 percent higher than the previous year, depending on the location and area.

In Ho Chi Minh City, land prices have risen by at least 15 percent compared to the previous year. Land lots with an area of over 50 square meters, priced at VND 2.6 billion at the end of 2024, have now increased to VND 3-3.2 billion. Currently, it is challenging to find products priced at VND 3 billion. Prices are expected to continue climbing as the infrastructure in this area is gradually being completed.

According to a report by DKRA Consulting, in the first quarter of 2025, the primary land supply in the southern region slightly decreased by 2 percent compared to the same period in 2024. A large portion of the supply was attributed to previously launched projects and concentrated in the three key markets of Long An, Binh Duong, and Dong Nai, accounting for about 82 percent of the primary supply in the market, equivalent to approximately 5,336 products currently on sale.

New supply in the region remains scarce, accounting for only about 16 percent of the primary supply, a decrease of about 28 percent compared to the same period last year. The overall market demand showed positive recovery signals, with consumption volume increasing sixfold compared to the first quarter of 2024. Most transactions took place in the Binh Duong market, accounting for 63.3 percent of the primary consumption in the market.

According to DKRA Consulting, the secondary land market is entering a vibrant recovery phase compared to the end of 2024, with price increases ranging from 12 percent to 16 percent. In addition, there has been a phenomenon of land fever in provinces and cities with information on merging into Ho Chi Minh City, with price increases of up to 20 percent to 30 percent.