US-Vietnam Trade Talks: What’s Next for the Stock Market?

Responding to VTC News, Mr. Dang Tran Phuc, Chairman of AZfin Vietnam JSC, shared his insights on the potential impact of the second round of trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US on the Vietnamese stock market. He stated that the talks have made positive progress, which will likely affect the market.

“At the beginning of next week, investors will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach. Even manufacturers and businesses will await the final trade agreement between the two countries before formulating their production and business plans accordingly. While the achievements in the Vietnam-US trade negotiations are positive, we don’t expect an immediate boom,” Mr. Phuc emphasized.

Mr. Phuc also highlighted Resolution 68 on private economic development as an extremely positive factor for the stock market. He believes that, in the long run, Resolution 68 will have a very positive impact on the market, especially for large-scale private enterprises listed on the stock exchange, such as Vingroup, Sungroup, Hoa Phat Group, and private joint-stock commercial banks like VP Bank, Techcombank, and HD Bank, along with some real estate businesses.

Mr. Dang Tran Phuc further stated that the market may experience short-term corrections as momentum indicators have entered the overbought zone. He advised that, overall, the market will maintain stability in the medium and long term. Short-term investors should refrain from chasing highs and closely monitor the tariff situation, adjusting their portfolios accordingly. Long-term investors, on the other hand, can consider gradual investment in volatile sessions, focusing on stocks that are less affected by tariffs, benefit from economic recovery, demonstrate growth in business results, offer attractive valuations, and provide high cash dividends. He suggested prioritizing stocks in the banking, securities, investment, and retail sectors.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VN-Direct Securities Corporation, concurred with Mr. Phuc’s assessment, noting that these events will positively influence the Vietnamese stock market in the coming week.

According to Mr. Hinh, after retreating to the support zone of 1,290-1,300 points on the second session, the VN-Index showed a positive recovery trend in the mid-week sessions. He attributed this recovery to the positive signals from the Vietnam-US trade negotiations.

Additionally, The Trump Organization officially commenced a $1.5 billion project in Hung Yen, raising expectations that Vietnam might achieve a more favorable reciprocal tax agreement within the next 45 days.

The market also received support from the upward momentum of Vingroup’s stock prices following a series of positive news. This included the Prime Minister’s instruction to relevant agencies to study VinSpeed’s proposal for a high-speed railway and the official commencement of the Tu Lien Bridge project, which will improve infrastructure connectivity for the Vin Global Gate Co Loa project. The upward trend cooled off in the last two sessions of the week as profit-taking pressure returned at the 1,320-1,340 resistance zone. The VN-Index ended the week up 1.4% at 1,314.5 points.

Looking ahead, Mr. Hinh anticipated that the 1,320-1,340 resistance zone will remain a significant challenge, as it represents the year’s high. With the Vietnam-US trade negotiations scheduled for early June, the VN-Index may trade sideways within the 1,290-1,340 range to absorb profit-taking pressure while awaiting new developments.