The first scenario predicts a stable and slowly recovering market. If policies remain cautious, the market will experience mild and sustainable growth over the next 2-3 years.
The second scenario envisions a robust market recovery. Should credit policies be relaxed and legal obstacles removed, the market could witness a noticeable upturn as early as 2026.
In the third scenario, the market heats up again. The introduction of significant policy incentives, such as credit packages and tax breaks, could spark a boom, but it would also bring the risk of uncontrolled speculation if not properly managed.
Hanoi’s real estate market in early 2025 is on a path of slow but steady recovery, driven by genuine demand and legal factors. This is the time for investors to play the long game, placing their faith in areas with clear planning, transparent legal frameworks, and sustainable growth potential.
Despite challenges, Hanoi’s real estate market in the first half of 2025 displays positive signals after a prolonged adjustment period. While there hasn’t been a noticeable boom, stable liquidity, the return of individual investors, and policy improvements in law and credit are laying the foundation for a more sustainable growth cycle.
However, this is not a period for short-term speculation. Buyers and investors must exercise caution, carefully selecting properties with clear legal status, reputable developers, and well-planned locations.
Additionally, according to reports by Savills Vietnam and other market research firms like DKRA and Batdongsan.com.vn, interest in Hanoi’s real estate market rebounded in Q1/2025, particularly among buyers seeking long-term residence and mid-to-long-term investment.
“Genuine demand still accounts for a large proportion. Today’s buyers are no longer chasing short-term trends but instead favor properties with clear legal status, reputable developers, and well-connected locations,” said Troy Griffiths, Deputy General Director of Savills Vietnam.
While the market hasn’t witnessed a flood of investment, F0 and F1 investors are returning, especially in segments like suburban land and middle-class apartments with financial support. However, compared to 2021-2022, today’s capital flows are more focused and selective, aiming for stable returns rather than super-profits.
Macroeconomic policies remain a pivotal factor influencing the market. The State Bank’s decision to lower operating interest rates in Q4/2024 has started to stimulate demand, but credit for speculative segments remains tightly controlled.
Simultaneously, the enactment of the 2024 Land Law has raised expectations for resolving legal hurdles, expediting project approvals, and enhancing supply in the medium term.
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