Investor U-Turn
According to data from Batdongsan.com.vn, the real estate market showed signs of cooling down in April after experiencing heightened interest in March. Specifically, overall market interest dropped by 18%, while the number of listings also decreased slightly by 6%.
Although the number of sales listings only saw a minor adjustment, reflecting sellers’ long-term expectations of demand, actual demand witnessed a significant decline across most segments.
Real estate demand in Ho Chi Minh City decreased by 19%, while other provinces recorded an average decline of 16-20%.
Compared to the previous month, interest in land decreased by 18%, apartments by 20%, and detached houses and shophouses by 14% each. Correspondingly, the number of listings also decreased across all segments: apartments by 9%, shophouses by 7%, land by 6%, and detached houses by 5%.
Regionally, real estate demand in Hanoi decreased by 18%, Ho Chi Minh City by 19%, while other provinces recorded an average decline of 16-20%. Notably, the two segments with the most significant drops were apartments and land, with a 23% decrease in Hanoi and a 21% decrease in Ho Chi Minh City.
Data from DKRA Group indicates that from April onwards, demand for real estate in Nhon Trach and Long Thanh started to cool down by 20-30%, with price increases slowing down and instances of canceled deposits as these areas were not merged into Ho Chi Minh City as previously rumored.
The Ministry of Construction’s Q1/2025 real estate market report shows that nationwide, there were 14 completed projects with a total scale of approximately 3,813 apartments, a 40% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Among these, the Northern region accounted for 8 projects, and the Southern region had 6 projects.
The number of newly licensed projects also witnessed a significant increase. In the first quarter of 2025, 26 commercial housing projects were licensed with a scale of approximately 15,780 units, a 44% increase compared to Q4/2024 and a 36% increase compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the North had 15 projects, the Central region had 7 projects, and the South had 4 projects.
Additionally, 59 projects with a total scale of approximately 19,760 apartments met the conditions for selling future construction houses, a more than 55% increase compared to the same period last year. The North continued to lead with 38 projects, the Central region had 14 projects, and the South had 7 projects. As of the end of Q1/2025, there were 994 projects under construction nationwide, offering a potential supply of approximately 399,873 apartments to the market in the coming time.
According to the Ministry of Construction, apartment prices in Q1/2025 in major cities such as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Danang, and Hai Phong remained stable compared to Q4/2024.
While apartment prices did not increase significantly as in 2024, real estate transactions boomed. Q1/2025 recorded 33,585 successful transactions for apartments and detached houses, a 32% increase compared to the previous quarter (25,409 transactions in Q4/2024). The land segment continued to attract capital inflows, with 101,049 transactions, a 16.4% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Despite improved liquidity, the total real estate inventory in projects remained at approximately 23,400 units, including 2,339 apartments, 9,376 detached houses, and 11,685 land plots.
Q1/2025 recorded 33,585 successful transactions for apartments and detached houses, a 32% increase compared to the previous quarter.
Compared to Q4/2024, inventory decreased but not evenly across all segments. Detached houses saw a significant reduction, falling to 83.5% of the previous quarter’s level. Meanwhile, the inventory of apartments and land remained higher, reflecting that new capital mainly flowed into more liquid or reasonably priced products.
Underlying Risks
According to Mr. Dinh Minh Tuan, Director of Batdongsan in the Southern region, after a vibrant period fueled by expectations of administrative mergers, the market has entered a “cold” phase due to the lack of specific supportive policies and clear infrastructure investments. The retreat of speculative investors has led to a significant drop in buying and selling demand.
Additionally, new supply mainly focuses on the luxury and high-end segments in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, with prices ranging from VND 70 to 100 million/sqm, exceeding the affordability of most buyers seeking residential properties. Land prices have also increased by 10-15%, while many landowners continue to withhold their land, expecting higher prices, which weakens market liquidity.
Furthermore, after the previous land fever, many small investors have withdrawn due to concerns about risks and low liquidity, especially in areas like Dong Anh (Hanoi), Nhon Trach (Dong Nai), and Duc Hoa (Long An).
After a vibrant period fueled by expectations of administrative mergers, the market has entered a “cold” phase.
The report from the Ministry of Construction also noted that in Hanoi, apartment prices in Q1/2025 remained relatively stable, with only a slight increase of about 5% compared to Q4/2024 in some projects and locations. In Ho Chi Minh City, apartment prices maintained stability, with some projects increasing slightly by 3-4% compared to the end of 2024.
In contrast to apartments, the villa and townhouse segments within projects continued their upward trajectory in Q1/2025. In Hanoi, selling prices for villas and townhouses increased by about 5-10% compared to the previous quarter. In Ho Chi Minh City, villa and townhouse prices remained stable, with some areas and projects increasing by about 3-5% compared to Q4/2024. In other provinces, villa and townhouse prices also showed an upward trend.
“In Q1/2025, transaction prices for detached houses and land in the provinces fluctuated much more strongly than in the previous quarter, mainly due to information about provincial mergers. Areas with information about new administrative centers recorded higher prices and transaction volumes, with localized surges in Bac Giang, Phu Tho, Ninh Binh, Thai Binh, Hung Yen, Hai Phong, and Dong Nai,” the report from the Ministry of Construction stated.
The report also showed that this price increase and transaction volume pose underlying risks due to speculative factors. Given this situation, local authorities have warned people to be cautious about unofficial information and have implemented measures to control and strengthen the management of the real estate market.
Why Are Property Prices in Hanoi Skyrocketing?
The soaring prices of apartments in Hanoi can be attributed to the high input costs of developing a commercial residential project. Land costs, which account for 25% of the total, surge to 40-50% for prime locations. Additionally, construction costs have been on a steep upward trajectory recently, contributing significantly to the overall expense.
The Housing Market Rebounds with Resilience.
The residential real estate market has witnessed a robust recovery, with a notable surge in both supply and absorption rates. This upturn is underscored by an accelerated resolution of legal issues for developers, resulting in a 51% growth in housing supply in the country’s two largest cities compared to the same period last year.
The New Buzz About District 9’s Real Estate
As of April 2025, according to Batdongsan.com.vn data, District 9 remains the top choice for those interested in land plots, followed by District 2, Cu Chi, and Hoc Mon.
Why Are Hanoi Apartment Prices Soaring?
The soaring prices of apartments in Hanoi can be attributed to the high input costs of developing a commercial residential project. Land costs, which account for 25% of the total project cost, surge to 40-50% for prime locations. Additionally, construction costs have been on a steep upward trajectory recently, further contributing to the overall expense.
“Provincial Land Prices are on the Rise: Investors Eye the Market”
The land plots priced at 30-35 million VND per square meter in the vicinity of Ho Chi Minh City, such as Can Giuoc, Duc Hoa, Ben Luc in Long An, and Long Thanh in Dong Nai, are becoming scarce. Compared to the same period last year, land prices have surged by 10-25%, depending on the lot and location. The primary supply entering the market is currently very limited.
