Is the Coffee Price Crash Unusual?

On June 19, coffee prices in some domestic localities fell to around 100,000 VND/kg, a decrease of up to 35,000 VND from the record high of 135,000 VND/kg observed in March 2025. On the London Exchange in the UK, Robusta coffee prices also dropped below 4,000 USD/ton, significantly lower than the peak of over 5,800 USD/ton reached in February 2025.

In an interview, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak province), shared that the sharp drop in coffee prices is not unusual, as Brazil is currently experiencing a robust harvest, especially of Robusta beans. According to Mr. Minh, farmers have already sold most of their crop, and only about 10-15% of the coffee remains in their possession.

“The current price of around 100,000 VND/kg is considered reasonable, ensuring a balance of interests among stakeholders in the coffee production and consumption chain,” Mr. Minh added. “When coffee prices surged to 130,000 – 135,000 VND/kg, coffee roasters faced significant challenges.”

Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), informed that Brazil’s Robusta coffee harvest is almost complete, with an estimated yield of about 25 million tons—a bountiful season. According to Mr. Hai, in a context of sufficient supply and stable demand, along with recent conflicts in some parts of the world, many investors have shifted their capital from coffee to other commodities such as gold and oil, contributing to the significant drop in coffee prices.

For exporters, the volatile coffee prices pose risks to their business operations. Mr. Nguyen Dac Dat, owner of a second-tier coffee agency in Dak Nong, shared that while prices have dropped by about 30% from their peak, the market remains unstable, leading to subdued trading activities. “Farmers are not selling off their coffee, and exporters are not aggressively buying due to a lack of new contracts. Only a few traders are purchasing small quantities to meet immediate needs, awaiting price stabilization,” he explained.

Meanwhile, Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh, a farmer in Dak Ha district, Kon Tum province, shared that during the recent price surge, her family chose to hold on to their crop, curious to see how high the prices could go. However, as prices started to plummet, they decided to store their coffee in warehouses, anticipating a price rebound. “We have the capacity to store our harvest for up to two years while maintaining its quality, thanks to our spacious warehouses,” she said confidently.

Mr. Vo Van Khang, a shareholder of the Vuong Thanh Cong coffee brand (Dak Lak) with 30 hectares of coffee bean sources, recalled that a few years ago, coffee growers barely broke even or even incurred losses. It was only in the last two years that they started making profits thanks to the rising prices. However, the volatile nature of coffee prices exposes growers to significant risks.

To mitigate these risks, Vuong Thanh Cong is focusing on product diversification, quality enhancement, and investment in deep processing to increase the value of their coffee. The company aims to increase its revenue from 200 million VND/ha to ten times that amount.