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“A Retail Consumer Business With Strong Profit Growth for Three Consecutive Quarters”

26 June, 2025

Riding the Market Upgrade Wave

In its latest report on global market accessibility, MSCI noted that Vietnam has made some progress over the past 12 months. Specifically, the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance announced a roadmap requiring public companies to disclose information in English, starting from January 1, 2025, and completing it by January 1, 2028. In addition, from December 2024, Vietnam introduced a prefunding mechanism, whereby securities companies are responsible for ensuring transaction payments. MSCI stated that it will continue to monitor the implementation of these reforms in the coming period.

According to a report by Saigon – Hanoi Securities (SHS), if the upgrade process is successful, the Vietnamese market is expected to attract approximately $9 billion from global investment funds. Of this, about $800 million could come from ETFs tracking the FTSE Russell index, $2 billion from other passive funds, and $4-6 billion from active funds. This capital tends to be allocated to large-cap stocks with high liquidity and foreign ownership room.

Based on these criteria, SHS has listed the stocks likely to be included in the FTSE index. Consumer – retail stocks, especially those with large market caps, are considered a good fit for foreign investors’ tastes. Among them, the MSN stock of the Masan Group is mentioned as a potential case, as the company is deploying development strategies that align with current consumption trends and macroeconomic conditions.

Stock Valuation Around VND 90,000: Opportunities and Challenges

Major securities companies have given positive valuations to MSN stock. Accordingly, VCBS recommends a ‘BUY’ rating, with a target price of 93,208 VND per share – 42% higher than the market price at the time of reporting. KBSV valued the stock at VND 100,000 per share using the SoTP model, with a base case scenario including double-digit growth in MCH, WCM, and MML.

However, securities companies have also cautioned about some factors to monitor, including the uneven recovery of domestic consumption; geopolitical and supply chain risks; and increasing competition in the FMCG and modern retail industries.

Nevertheless, Masan’s sustained profit growth in Q2, estimated at nearly 60% year-on-year, indicates the company’s effective management of operational risks and gradual restoration of market trust. With a net profit plan for 2025 set at VND 4,875-6,500 billion, the company has nearly completed 51% of the base case net profit plan.

Consumer – Retail Ecosystem Accelerates

After a restructuring process, the retail segment of Masan, WinCommerce (WCM), has recorded notable improvements in operational efficiency. According to the company, WCM’s revenue for the first five months of 2025 is estimated at VND 14,700 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year.

In May alone, WCM’s network revenue reached approximately VND 3,031 billion, a surge of 18%. Notably, the WinMart+ Rural model contributed significantly with a growth rate of 37%, amounting to nearly VND 700 billion. During the month, WCM opened an additional 50 stores, bringing the total number of new stores since the beginning of the year to 257, equivalent to almost 40% of the annual target.

Customers shopping at WinCommerce’s supermarket system

In parallel with the retail segment, Masan Consumer (MCH) and Masan MEATLife (MML) remain the key players in the group’s consumer – retail ecosystem.

In Q1/2025, MCH recorded a revenue of VND 7,489 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year. The gross profit margin remained at 47%, reflecting the effectiveness of product structuring and input cost control. The company continues to implement a premium strategy, notably with the “Quan Xa Chau A” product line under the Omachi brand. At the recent annual general meeting of shareholders, a dividend advance of up to 60% (VND 6,000/share) for 2025 was approved. Previously, the 2024 dividend was paid by MCH at a rate of 95% (VND 9,500/share), equivalent to a total value of more than VND 6,884 billion, a relatively large payout ratio compared to the industry average.

As for Masan MEATLife (MML), its revenue in Q1/2025 reached VND 2,070 billion, a 20% increase year-on-year. Both the fresh meat and processed meat segments witnessed double-digit growth. Notably, the processed meat brands Ponnie and Heo Cao Boi achieved a total average monthly revenue of VND 240 billion. According to the report, MML currently holds approximately 54% of the protein portfolio market share in the WinCommerce system, far surpassing the market share of the second-ranked enterprise.

Masan’s prospects for 2025 remain positive, but they are inseparable from the economy’s overall fluctuations and consumer market dynamics. With its agile portfolio management, ecosystem optimization, and reinvestment capabilities, MSN is well-positioned to sustain its growth trajectory, albeit with cautious expansion and financial efficiency considerations.

– 08:00 26/06/2025