These are the notable insights shared by KAFI Securities experts at the “360 Investment – Optimizing Assets, Seizing Opportunities” seminar on October 18th.
Four Pillars Opening New Peak Opportunities
Opening the seminar, Mr. Trinh Duy Viet – Director of Securities Strategy at KAFI, emphasized the impressive achievements of Vietnam’s economy and stock market, despite global challenges.
Looking at the global economic landscape, macro uncertainties have intensified since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic began. From 2020 to 2025, the world witnessed numerous upheavals, from pandemics and prolonged conflicts to trade wars.
According to the World Bank, global economic growth this year is projected at 2.3%, down from 2.8% last year, with a slight increase to 2.4% expected in 2026. Global inflation is forecast to remain steady at 2.9% in 2025-2026, while central bank interest rates are trending slightly downward.
Amid this, Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow by over 8% in 2025 and potentially reach double digits in 2026.
In the stock market, the VN-Index has surged by approximately 37% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the world’s most dynamic markets. Four key pillars have driven this growth: high economic growth on a stable political foundation; institutional reforms, from vision to action; market upgrade from Frontier to Secondary Emerging by FTSE Russell; and robust business performance reflecting corporate strength.
Among these, corporate strength plays a pivotal role. Corporate profits in 2025-2026 are projected to grow by 20-25%, maintaining high growth rates and sustaining valuation levels.
Although the market’s P/E ratio of 15-16 times is in line with the 2012-2025 average, investor confidence in stable economic growth and the market upgrade narrative justifies paying a premium, potentially 1-2 times the standard, opening opportunities for new market highs.
Mr. Trinh Duy Viet discusses the four pillars driving the stock market
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Regarding risks, KAFI’s Strategy Director noted that concerns earlier this year, such as exchange rates and inflation, have subsided.
For exchange rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cuts will support indirect investment and international borrowing returning to Vietnam. Recently, several domestic banks have announced increased foreign capital mobilization, boosting foreign currency reserves.
While credit growth cannot remain high indefinitely, internal factors like investment and consumption remain crucial drivers of corporate profit growth—a key focus for investors.
A Phase for Selective Stock Picking
On choosing sectors for the upcoming phase, Mr. Viet suggests a top-down approach, considering the macro context. With high economic growth, political stability, and Vietnam’s outperformance, consumption and investment stand out.
Beneficiary sectors like construction, building materials, and real estate have shown strong first-half results, driven by public, private, and FDI investments.
Retail is also noteworthy, with positive growth trends month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter, supporting continued growth in this sector.
A bottom-up approach, focusing on individual companies, especially post-market upgrade, reveals opportunities for companies attracting foreign investment funds.
Mr. Viet outlines four criteria for selecting companies: governance quality, short-, medium-, and long-term growth potential, financial health and efficiency, and attractive valuation.
Mr. Trinh Duy Viet outlines four stock selection criteria
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At the event, Mr. Luong Duy Phuoc – Director of Securities Analysis at KAFI, stressed the need for meticulous stock selection.
Mr. Phuoc noted that the market is no longer universally bullish. While the VN-Index hovers around 1,750 points, it’s influenced by large-cap stocks, particularly “blue chips.” Investors must focus on quality and understand their holdings for real returns.
Mr. Luong Duy Phuoc emphasizes careful stock selection for the upcoming phase
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Halfway to Foreign Capital Return
Addressing foreign investors’ net selling, Mr. Trinh Duy Viet deemed it reasonable. Since 2020, global volatility has prompted capital flight to safer assets. A return depends on a brighter global outlook.
Previously, Vietnam’s Frontier market status limited foreign fund interest. However, the upgrade to Secondary Emerging changes this dynamic.
Foreign capital will return with two conditions: Vietnam’s market upgrade (achieved) and global stability. “While global factors are unpredictable, we’ve met half the requirements,” Mr. Viet noted.
– 11:08 20/10/2025
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