The VN-Index witnessed its second consecutive week of strong gains, surging past the 1370-point mark. However, the majority of this increase was concentrated in the first two sessions, with the last three sessions seeing minimal fluctuations. Notably, if we exclude the large trading volume on June 24th, the average weekly liquidity would be considered low.
The matched order value (excluding block trades) averaged approximately 19.7 trillion VND per session on the HoSE and HNX, with Tuesday’s trading volume spiking to nearly 24.3 trillion VND. This session marked a shift to a stagnant upward momentum, followed by a sharp decline in subsequent sessions.
Experts expressed concern and consensus regarding the weak liquidity signal during the index’s peak performance last week, indicating a negative development. The impact of large-cap stocks remains evident, especially with VIC and VHM’s strong performance in the first two sessions, which played a decisive role in pushing the VN-Index beyond the mid-term peak. Nonetheless, the concerns vary. The optimistic perspective suggests that this is not a false breakout, and the market can continue to rise slightly further on low liquidity as long as the pillar stocks remain robust. A cautious stance, on the other hand, indicates that the divergence between cash flow and futures contracts, which are still heavily discounted against the underlying index, points to the risk of a “bull trap.”
Moreover, experts believe that technical signals are not sufficiently reliable in the context of crucial upcoming information about the negotiation results on retaliatory tariffs. This fundamental information could reshape the market and exert a stronger influence than technical factors. Therefore, investors have a valid reason to be cautious, resulting in subdued cash flow activity.
In the short term, experts anticipate the market to continue its upward trajectory towards the 1390-1400 range if there are no updates on retaliatory tariffs. Should the negotiation outcomes fall short of market expectations, a technical correction is likely to occur. In a more favorable scenario, varying tax rates for different sectors would lead to a significant divergence in cash flow.
Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy
The VN-Index finally broke through the mid-term peak, despite skepticism in the futures market. The entire gain was concentrated in the first two sessions, with minimal progress in the following three sessions and persistently low liquidity. It appears that investors are not overly enthusiastic about this technical signal. What are your thoughts? Is this a reliable indicator?
In my view, this scenario resembles an attempt to prop up pillar stocks rather than a genuine breakthrough with widespread participation, thus harboring the risk of a “bull trap.” To bolster confidence, the market needs sessions with substantial gains accompanied by improved liquidity.
Nghiem Sy Tien
Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company
The VN-Index closed the week above the previous peak of 1350 points, but it is worth noting that liquidity remained low, and the spread across sectors was limited. The primary contributors to this upward momentum were the large-cap stocks, which took turns leading the rally.
A crucial signal is that the percentage of stocks above the 20-day moving average remains below 50% while the index hits a new high, indicating a significant divergence. These factors suggest that the breakout session lacks reliability, although there are no apparent signs of negative adjustments in individual sectors. I believe that the current state is likely a consolidation phase, awaiting the emergence of clear catalysts.
Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities
The VN-Index experienced an impressive increase in the first two sessions of the week, but it failed to garner enthusiasm from investors, as evidenced by minimal changes in the subsequent sessions and persistently low liquidity. Additionally, the VN30-Index futures contract exhibited a -15.89-point deviation from the underlying index, indicating a lack of consensus among investors regarding the supportive technical factors for a mid-term upward trend.
While we cannot conclusively determine whether this is a “false breakout,” it seems unlikely that the market will experience a robust breakout to initiate a new price increase cycle. I predict that the VN-Index will witness another surge early next week, approaching the 1400-point level, followed by a potential adjustment in the latter sessions, transforming the 1350-point region into a new support level for the market to consolidate before any significant news that could impact investor sentiment.
Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Analyst, KBSV Securities
A sustainable breakthrough is typically accompanied by a surge in liquidity, indicating the robust participation of large cash flows and widespread participation. However, the opposite occurred last week: the index rose rapidly within a short period, only to stagnate immediately afterward with low trading volume. This dynamic suggests weak buying power and a lack of market consensus. Similar to Mr. Tien’s perspective, this scenario appears more like an attempt to prop up pillar stocks rather than a genuine, far-reaching breakthrough, thus harboring the risk of a “bull trap.” To bolster confidence, the market needs sessions with substantial gains accompanied by improved liquidity.
Nguyen Huy Phuong – Head of Analysis Center, Rong Viet Securities
Surpassing the mid-term peak of 1350 points is a positive signal for the market, especially considering that there were no specific distribution signals beforehand. This indicates a gradual expansion of the previous upward trend. However, the market’s weakness lies in its liquidity. Low liquidity reflects subdued cash flow and investor enthusiasm. As distribution signals have not emerged, the risk of a sudden sharp decline is relatively low. Should an adjustment occur, the market will find support and recover. Nevertheless, for this signal to be reliable and the market to exhibit positive dynamics, cash flow needs to become more vibrant.
Le Duc Khanh – Director of Analysis, VPS Securities
The breakthrough above the peak is a significant indicator reflecting the market’s positive performance in the first half of 2025 and its upward trajectory in the following mid-term phase. Some investors may be concerned about the new peak zone this year and may adopt a wait-and-see approach, anticipating a correction to enter at lower prices. However, reality may unfold differently, as the “rising in doubt” scenario is likely to persist, with the VN-Index surpassing the 1380-1400 range or even reaching the 1450-point milestone. In summary, the “new high” signal of the VN-Index is quite reliable, especially amid Vietnam’s economic transformation.
Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy
Some argue that the current rally is merely a normal end-of-quarter NAV closing effect, possibly the fifth wave of the uptrend since the April bottom. What is your assessment of how long this uptrend can last?
Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities
I concur with the view that the current rally is influenced by the end-of-quarter NAV closing effect, and given the market’s heated performance since the April bottom, it is plausible that we are in the fifth wave. As mentioned earlier, this uptrend will not persist, and with lower liquidity than previous waves, a significant correction is likely. I predict that this rally will culminate around the 1390-point level.
Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Analyst, KBSV Securities
If the end-of-quarter NAV closing effect is a driving force, its influence will likely wane as we enter the third quarter. Similarly, if we consider this the fifth wave, it would be the final wave before a substantial adjustment phase. Therefore, I believe that the upward momentum may not extend far beyond the previous peak. The nearest psychological level and previous peaks will pose significant challenges. The risk of a reversal or a substantial adjustment will increase considerably in the first two weeks of the third quarter when these short-term supportive factors dissipate.
While we cannot conclusively determine whether this is a “false breakout,” it seems unlikely that the market will experience a robust breakout to initiate a new price increase cycle. I predict that the VN-Index will witness another surge early next week, approaching the 1400-point level before potentially adjusting in the latter sessions, transforming the 1350-point region into a new support level, and consolidating until significant news emerges.
Nguyen Viet Quang
Nguyen Huy Phuong – Head of Analysis Center, Rong Viet Securities
The recent rally is influenced by the end-of-quarter NAV closing effect, but we cannot ignore the market’s inherent tendency to expand its upward trend. Currently, we are in the fifth wave of the uptrend that began in early April. After completing this fifth wave, the market will undergo an adjustment phase. Determining the endpoint of this wave is complex, and its intensity will depend on the strength or weakness of the cash flow in the coming period. However, the outcome of this wave will significantly impact the market’s future trajectory. If it concludes on a positive note, the subsequent adjustment wave will present an opportunity for investors to accumulate stocks for the next growth wave.
Le Duc Khanh – Director of Analysis, VPS Securities
Various reasons can be cited for the market’s current rally. Nonetheless, the stock market will inevitably follow its “roadmap” of upward momentum in the medium and long term. Any corrections along the way are expected at the 1375-1380 and 1400 levels, and even beyond, but these will merely be temporary pauses. In my opinion, the more critical considerations are the specific stocks to invest in and the appropriate investment strategies. Maintaining a portfolio of 3-5 stocks is suitable for most investors, focusing on sectors such as technology, industrial park real estate, port services, chemicals, energy, retail, and industrial goods and services.
Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company
The lack of spread and the pronounced divergence among sectors are notable aspects of the market’s current upward trajectory. Nevertheless, I believe that cash flow is hesitant, awaiting clear catalysts, particularly the outcome of the retaliatory tariff negotiations, as the 90-day temporary suspension deadline is approaching. If market consensus improves, the upward momentum will become more sustainable, potentially extending towards testing the previous peak of 1500 points. However, if the divergence persists, I anticipate a market cooldown in the coming period to regenerate momentum.
Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy
Forecasts for second-quarter 2025 earnings are quite positive, while the negotiation results on retaliatory tariffs may emerge in the next 1-2 weeks. These two pieces of information could have opposing impacts. How do you select a suitable portfolio in this context, especially when specific tax rates for each sector are not yet available?
Nguyen Huy Phuong – Head of Analysis Center, Rong Viet Securities
The forecasts for second-quarter 2025 earnings are quite optimistic, and this information may positively impact individual stocks, contributing to the overall market support. In the first half of July 2025, we can expect official news about retaliatory tariffs, which currently makes investors cautious, as reflected in the low liquidity. At present, this information is challenging to predict, and it is uncertain whether it will have a positive or negative impact on the market. Therefore, in this context, I personally suggest maintaining a low proportion when investing in sectors potentially affected by tariffs, such as Export, Transportation, and Industrial Park groups, and awaiting further developments. The current strategy can focus on sectors with positive narratives, including Retail, Food and Beverage, Banking, and Construction Materials.
The market is currently in the fifth wave of the uptrend that began in early April. After completing this fifth wave, the market will undergo an adjustment phase.
Nguyen Huy Phuong
Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company
My current portfolio remains predominantly focused on medium and long-term positions, targeting companies with solid fundamentals and clear growth stories. Short-term fluctuations may have an impact, but in the long run, growth narratives will be the decisive factor. I prioritize sectors benefiting from economic stimulus policies and those aligned with the government’s goal of boosting GDP growth. These include Banking, Public Investment, Consumer Goods, and Retail. Additionally, I am reconsidering the Technology sector, as the current discount levels are quite attractive, given that digital transformation remains a top development priority.
Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business, Yuanta Securities
The second-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to be positive and continue the growth trajectory from the first quarter. However, I believe that this has already been factored into stock prices during the recent rallies, so a strong surge from the bottom is unlikely when the quarterly results are announced. Although the negotiation outcomes on retaliatory tariffs remain speculative, and there are diverse opinions on the new tax rates to be applied, we can cautiously anticipate a positive outcome, with a potential reduction in the overall tax rate to around 15-20%.
Le Duc Khanh – Director of Analysis, VPS Securities
We should await the outcome of the negotiations, expecting a favorable scenario where information is reflected in price movements and the market anticipates developments. If the VN-Index’s breakthrough above the three-year peak encapsulates various positive signals, macroeconomic trends, and supportive news, constructing a portfolio will undoubtedly become more manageable. A portion of the portfolio should be dedicated to leading companies or those with outstanding financial performance in the first half of the year. Additionally, sectors benefiting from cyclical trends, such as Chemicals, Rubber, Steel, or those benefiting from public investment in construction and installation, should be considered, depending on price volatility and valuation levels. In my view, a portfolio of 3-5 stocks is suitable for most investors, focusing on sectors like Technology, Industrial Park Real Estate, Port Services, Chemicals, Energy, Retail, and Industrial Goods and Services.
A portfolio of 3-5 stocks is suitable for most investors, focusing on sectors like Technology, Industrial Park Real Estate, Port Services, Chemicals, Energy, Retail, and Industrial Goods and Services.
Le Duc Khanh
Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Analyst, KBSV Securities
The earnings landscape for the second quarter of 2025 is expected to exhibit a pronounced divergence among sectors. In this context, investors should focus
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