Three Economic Growth Scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City in Q1 2024

At the socio-economic meeting reviewing the results of January and setting the goals for February 2024, held this morning (1/2), the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Research and Development has presented three economic growth scenarios for the first quarter of Ho Chi Minh City.


According to Ms. Nguyen Truc Van, Director of the Economic and Social Modeling and Forecasting Center of Ho Chi Minh City under the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute, in January 2024, Ho Chi Minh City recorded some favorable points when consumer purchasing power and industrial production activities maintained their growth momentum, and the currency market supported enterprises to borrow production capital with many changes.

However, there are still some warnings, such as difficulties in import and export due to a sharp decrease in total demand, decrease in prices of some goods, increase in inventory levels, difficulties faced by some manufacturing industries, application of some environmental taxes in the European market, carbon credits, etc. creating many challenges.

January Economic – Social Meeting in Ho Chi Minh City (Photo: Viet Dung)

To avoid a repeat of the low growth scenario in the first quarter of 2023, according to Ms. Nguyen Truc Van, at the end of 2023, Ho Chi Minh City took decisive actions to promote growth in 2024, such as focusing on forecasting work, ordering research participation from institutes and universities, consulting opinions, promoting public investment from the beginning of the year, promoting domestic consumption, regional connectivity, promotions, promoting e-commerce, and stimulating consumer demand during the Lunar New Year.

In addition, the contents of Council Resolution 98 are being implemented, creating a digital transformation center and especially promoting green models and capital flows.

Disbursement of public investment is a motivating factor for growth (Illustration: H.K)

Based on this analysis, the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute has developed 3 growth scenarios for the first quarter of 2024.

Accordingly, with the unfavorable scenario where major economies recover slowly, political conflicts worldwide continue to escalate, unpredictable epidemics, and new economic growth drivers have not yet been fully realized, Ho Chi Minh City’s GRDP is forecasted to reach about 4.83 – 5.95%.

With the baseline scenario of continuing the recovery momentum at the end of 2023, promoting traditional growth drivers and new drivers such as science and technology, digital transformation, green economy, and circular economy, Ho Chi Minh City’s first quarter GRDP is expected to reach 6.05%, forecasted at about 5.49 – 6.61%.

Growth of Ho Chi Minh City in the first quarter can reach 6.56% (Illustration: H.K)

The most favorable scenario, where the international and domestic environment transitions favorably, forecasted good risk factors, a stable macroeconomy, good exploitation factors, strengthened trust of the people and enterprises, then in the first quarter, Ho Chi Minh City is expected to grow at 6.56%, forecasted at about 6 – 7.12%.

“Depending on the global economic growth developments and the efforts and effectiveness of the city’s public administration, the scenarios will occur.” – Ms. Nguyen Truc Van said.

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