The price of SJC gold starting in 2023 was at 66.6 – 67.6 million VND/tael and ended the year at 70 – 74 million VND/tael (buy – sell). Therefore, after one year, the precious metal price continues to mark an upward cycle, bringing about a profit of 2.4 million VND/tael for investors.
However, this is only a profit calculated at the beginning and end of the year. In reality, the price of gold has had periods of sharp increase, bringing “huge” profits to investors.
The hottest trend of SJC gold prices was in the last 2 weeks of 2023 when it continuously rose sharply, increasing by millions of VND/ session. The peak was on December 26, 2023, the SJC gold price was adjusted by businesses up to 10 times in the upward trend, reaching the peak of 80.3 million VND/tael.
Compared to the beginning of the year, this price is nearly 13 million VND/tael higher, a very good profit in the context of other investment channels facing difficulties.
Gold prices in 2024 will be unlikely to increase sharply. (Illustrative image: Minh Duc).
2024 is unlikely to see a sharp increase
According to experts’ opinions, in 2024, the price of gold may experience new increases but it will not increase sharply like in 2023.
According to Mr. Nguyen An Huy, Head of Personal Financial Advisory Department at FIDT, in 2024, the supporting factors for gold will be the increasing tension in geopolitics and the decline in the value of the USD as the Federal Reserve has announced its plan to cut interest rates.
Conversely, in 2024, there are also many obstacles to gold such as inflation tending to decrease worldwide, making gold lose its attractiveness as a hedge. The economies of many countries are forecasted to recover, indirectly making gold lose its appeal as other asset channels such as stocks, real estate may have better growth in the period of 2024 – 2025.
For SJC gold, the resolute actions of the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam to prevent the gold-ization of the economy will make this commodity difficult to increase strongly according to the world gold price this year.
Similarly, Mr. Huynh Trung Khanh, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Gold Business Association (VGTA), forecasted that the global gold price can continue to rise and test high levels such as $2,100 or $2,150/ounce. However, by the end of Quarter I/2024, the market may experience a sharp decline or sooner in February, March.
In line with this view, Assoc.Prof. Dinh Trong Thinh, an economic expert, said that although the main trend of gold prices is still increasing, the amount of money flowing in will not be too large because gold fluctuates a lot and carries many risks.
According to the perspective of Mr. Ngo Thanh Huan, CEO of FIDT, gold is only a defensive investment channel. Gold prices will be supported when interest rates in the US decrease. With the influence of political factors, gold prices will return to high levels like the peak of 2023 but it will be difficult to increase more than 20% in 2024.
If the economic outlook for 2024 is stable, gold prices may move sideways or decrease. Compared to the growth performance of stocks, this is an unattractive increase, even with few expectations. In the case of amending Decree 24 to control gold prices, domestic gold prices will move closer to the world gold price. Thus, the pace of gold’s increase will not be exceptional.
Mr. Huan recommends that this year, investors should buy gold in strong declines of 5-10%. If not following this formula, investors are prone to “buying at the top”. In the investment portfolio for 2024, gold should be kept at a proportion of 10%. The reasonable time to sell gold is 2025.
On the other hand, according to Mr. Nguyen Tuan Anh, Chairman of FinPeace’s Board of Directors, gold pricing is very difficult and unnecessary because gold is a type of asset that individuals should have in their investment portfolio.
“In the long run, if looking at asset allocation in the investment portfolio, gold is a must-have item for individual investors because it ensures very high liquidity,” Mr. Tuan Anh said.
Mr. Tuan Anh also noted that investors should not rely on this factor to sell their held gold. Because moving between asset classes will not depend on price fluctuations but should depend on the total asset planning of each investor. Moreover, after selling gold, it is very difficult to find a better new investment channel for the amount of capital received.
