According to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung, in the first month of 2024, the macroeconomic situation is stable, inflation is controlled, and major balances are ensured. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in January increased by 3.37% compared to the same period last year, and commodity prices were relatively stable.
The foreign exchange market has stable basic exchange rates, and interest rates continue to trend downward; fully meeting payment needs, supplying cash to the economy during Tet; ensuring the safety of the banking system.
State budget revenue in January reached 13.6% of the estimate. The import-export turnover, exports, and imports in January increased by 37.7%, 42%, and 33.3% respectively compared to the same period last year, and increased by 5.5%, 6.7%, and 4.2% compared to the previous month, showing a positive recovery trend month by month; trade surplus of estimated $2.92 billion.
Another bright spot of the economy in the first month of the year is the sharp increase in registered FDI capital by 40.2% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching over $2.36 billion. This is a signal that our country is taking advantage of opportunities from foreign achievements and diplomacy in 2023 and the first month of 2024.
Vietnam’s economy in the first month of 2024 has many bright spots. (Illustrative image)
In response to VTC News, economist Tran Hoang Ngan evaluates that 2024 will be a year of acceleration and breakthroughs, with special significance in the successful implementation of the 5-year socio-economic development plan for 2021 – 2025.
According to Mr. Ngan, besides industry as a bright spot, agriculture is still a solid foundation for Vietnam’s economy in the coming year. “We need to take good care of our 100 million people and have a surplus of food for export. Our market is very large, and Vietnam is still one of the leading exporters of agricultural products to the world,” said Mr. Ngan.
Another internal force that can be further enhanced to stimulate Vietnam’s economic development is tourism. This is a spearhead economic sector, but investment has still been modest. Currently, the domestic tourism market has recovered compared to before COVID-19, but the international tourism market is still low, reaching only over 70%.
“Developing the tourism market is a strength because Vietnam has golden forests, silver seas, many beautiful landscapes and cultural and historical relics,” stated Mr. Ngan.
According to Mr. Ngan, when the agriculture and tourism sectors develop, it will help Vietnam’s economy develop sustainably, amidst many fluctuations in the world.
Meanwhile, PGS.TS Pham Thi Hong Yen, Standing member of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, expects two factors to drive strong economic development.
Firstly, capital flows into new fields such as circular economy, green economy, climate change adaptation, sustainable production, and consumption. “When domestic and foreign businesses shift their investments to these sectors, it will definitely create a growth momentum for the economy in 2024 – 2025,” predicted Ms. Yen.
Secondly, disbursement of public investment capital, injecting a large amount of capital into the economy according to the orientation of the National Assembly and the Government. “Disbursing public investment capital while developing projects will certainly be one of the key factors driving economic growth,” said Ms. Yen.
Mr. Tran Van Lam, member of the National Assembly’s Finance-Budget Committee, emphasized the achievements of 2023 and believed that they would be the foundation and leverage to promote the economy.
Although in theory, the economic growth target is not achieved (6.5 – 7%), in the context of the world economy’s instability and many fluctuations, stabilizing the macro economy, low inflation, ensuring public debt safety, and reducing overspending compared to the plan are significant achievements of Vietnam’s economy.
With the higher growth momentum next month compared to the previous month, and the better next quarter compared to the current one, Mr. Lam affirmed that the above achievements would continue to shine in 2024.
The number of newly established enterprises in January 2024 increased in terms of quantity and registered capital compared to the same period, with a 24.8% increase in the number of enterprises, a 52.8% increase in registered capital, and a 50.8% increase in the number of employees. (Illustrative image)
6 urgent solution groups
Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV, Member of the Financial-Monetary National Policy Advisory Council, stated 6 major solution groups to continue the growth of Vietnam’s economy in 2024.
The first is to be more resolute in improving the investment and business environment, especially regarding the implementation of public tasks.
Promote the recovery of traditional growth drivers along with better leveraging new growth drivers. In which, better exploit the signed FTAs and opportunities gained in upgrading strategic partnerships; develop the digital economy and green economy in a systematic, substantial, and strategic manner.
Ensure macroeconomic stability in the context of external and internal risks and challenges; don’t be subjective about energy security, food security, proactively adapt to climate change…
Pay more attention to the economic restructuring process; especially weak businesses and credit organizations. If not resolutely resolved and accelerated, this process will cause bottlenecks, inefficient resource allocation, and high costs.
Finally, to achieve the above tasks, improving the quality of growth is both a goal and a foundation. Accordingly, the task of increasing labor productivity is associated with strong administrative procedure reforms, the application of science and technology, personnel recruitment reform and evaluation – salaries of the civil servant corps are necessary.
