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According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s corn imports in December 2023 reached 1.35 million tons, equivalent to over 347 million USD, an increase of 113.6% in volume and 109.9% in value compared to the previous month. Summing up the year 2023, our country imported over 9.7 million tons of corn worth over 2.8 billion USD, an increase of 1.1% in volume but a decrease of 14.1% in value compared to 2022.
The import price averaged 295 USD/ton, a 15% decrease compared to the previous year.
In terms of market, Brazil is the largest market for supplying corn to Vietnam in 2023 with over 4.23 million tons, equivalent to over 1.23 billion USD, an increase of 194.9% in volume and 157.8% in trade value compared to 2022.
Note that a neighboring country is also rapidly increasing corn exports to the Vietnamese market even though our country has a much larger production volume which is 9 times that of Laos. Specifically, in 2023, our country imported 104,970 tons of corn from Laos, with a value of over 34 million USD, an increase of 35% in volume and 19% in value. However, this accounts for only over 1% in both volume and trade value.
The import price averaged 328 USD/ton, a 15% decrease compared to the previous year.
Of note, there is a significant difference in corn production between Vietnam and Laos. Although imports from Laos increased in volume, in 2022 Vietnam witnessed a much larger production volume compared to this neighboring country. Data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that the corn output of Laos reached 510,000 tons in the 2022-2023 crop year. On average, in the 2018-2022 period, Laos’ corn production reached 597,000 tons.
As for Vietnam, statistics from the General Statistics Office show that in 2022 corn production reached 4.41 million tons, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous year. So if we compare with 2022, Vietnam’s corn production is 8.5 times larger than the Laos market.
In 2022, Vietnam imported 9.5 million tons of corn with a trade value of 3.3 billion USD, of which corn imports from Laos reached 77,364 tons, worth 28.7 million USD, accounting for a very small trade value of 0.8%.
Vietnam is one of the two countries with the fastest growing corn imports in Southeast Asia and also the largest corn importer in the region since the 2018/19 crop year. Since 2012, Vietnam has moved from the 19th largest corn importer to the 5th position in the world.
According to analysts, global wheat, corn, and soybean prices – after years of strong growth – tend to decrease in 2023 due to reduced congestion in the Black Sea and concerns about the global economic downturn, but they are still vulnerable to supply shocks and food inflation in 2024.
Regarding the future global corn supply, it is forecasted that the world’s corn production for the 2023/24 crop year will reach 1,213.5 million tons, an increase of 5.4% compared to the 2022/23 crop year (1,151.8 million tons). The estimated output in the US is 383.8 million tons, an increase of 10.1% compared to the previous year (348.8 million tons), while China’s production is projected to decrease by 0.1% to 277 million tons. Europe is expected to increase by 14.3% to reach 59.7 million tons, and Ukraine will increase by 1.9% to reach 27.5 million tons.
