Regarding the challenges for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024, representatives from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment) believe that in 2024, the potential risks from the global economic environment will still exist and continue to negatively impact Vietnam’s economic growth prospects. The lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and high inflation in some major economies due to continued tight monetary policies are likely to persist.
Public debt continues to increase, global trade growth continues to maintain a low trend due to the impact of unpredictable geopolitical competition. Pressure from crude oil prices, volatile food prices, and prolonged interest rate hikes in many countries make the global economic recovery unclear.
The General Statistics Office forecasts that the Vietnamese economy will have a better chance of recovery if the support policies are adopted in 2023 with a more pronounced impact on the economy (Illustrative photo)
In relation to domestic conditions, according to Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong – Director General of the General Statistics Office, although there are favorable opportunities and challenging difficulties, the traditional growth drivers are still weak and unclear, so Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024 is expected to face many difficulties and challenges.
“The impact of the global economic decline compressed from the pandemic to the present is likely to continue to affect Vietnam’s economy, at least in the first half of 2024 before receiving more positive and optimistic signs,” the General Statistics Office representative added.
Despite facing numerous challenges, according to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s economy will have a better chance of recovery if the support policies adopted in 2023 have a more pronounced impact on the economy. In addition, investment, consumption, tourism, and exports, along with agriculture, continue to be strongly promoted. Along with that, persistent problems and prolonged inconsistencies are being focused on resolving and transitioning positively in 2024, especially the difficulties facing businesses, investment projects, real estate markets, and corporate bonds.
Specifically, the public investment sector is expected to be strengthened in 2024, contributing positively to GDP growth. Along with that, the service sector is still a bright spot, and some commercial sectors can maintain their growth momentum due to trade policies and domestic consumption promotion, including the aviation industry, wholesale and retail, accommodation and food services, financial services, and tourism.
According to a representative from the World Bank, Vietnam should strive to diversify its export markets as much as possible (Illustrative photo)
Regarding investment, the World Bank representative believes that besides public investment, there is also private investment in the domestic sector. To promote private investment, Vietnam needs to have support policies for the real estate market recovery. The real estate downturn is affecting private investment and also affecting the construction and related real estate rights sectors.
In addition to the above-mentioned growth drivers, according to the General Statistics Office representative, the agricultural, forestry, and fisheries sectors continue to enjoy positive growth in 2023 due to the effectiveness of agricultural development strategies, crop structure transformation, and the stable production activities in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors in 2024. Meanwhile, according to the World Bank representative, the agricultural and forestry sector is always the stable economic growth driver. It is a small sector but creates many jobs and high incomes for people in rural areas.
Especially, according to economic experts, 2024 is also the breakthrough year of the 5-year economic period from 2021 to 2025. Therefore, the Government and departments, sectors, and localities will make every effort for this stage. This can be the motivation that brings subjective advantages, promoting GDP growth in 2024.
Representative from the General Statistics Office: In the context of many uncertainties in the world economy, Vietnam needs to continue maintaining macroeconomic stability, which is an important foundation for achieving the expected growth targets.
