Intense Red Sea Tension: Rubber export forecast remains challenging

Despite the ongoing tension in the South China Sea, experts in the trading field continue to forecast challenges in the international rubber export market. The demand from China remains the key factor impacting Vietnam's rubber exports. Additionally, the prolonged tension in the South China Sea will also affect Vietnam's rubber exports.

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Illustration: VÅ© Sinh/TTXVN

According to the General Department of Customs, the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) stated that in January 2024, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached approximately 260 thousand tons, worth 365 million USD, a decrease of 3.3% in volume and a decrease of 2.4% in value compared to December 2023.

Furthermore, compared to January 2023, rubber exports increased by 92.6% in volume and 99.8% in value. In addition, the average export price of rubber reached $1,404 per ton, an increase of 0.9% compared to December 2023 and 3.7% compared to January 2023.

According to the Import-Export Department, in 2023, Vietnam exported 2.14 million tons of rubber, with a value of 2.89 billion USD, a decrease of 0.1% in volume and 12.8% in value compared to 2022. Among them, the main types of exported rubber are natural rubber and synthetic rubber (HS 400280), Latex, SVR 10, SVR 3L, SVR CV60, RSS3, SVR 20…

It is worth noting that the natural rubber and synthetic rubber mix (HS 400280) is still the most exported product, accounting for 67.57% in volume and 68.98% in value of the country’s total rubber exports, reaching over 1.44 million tons, worth 1.99 billion USD, an increase of 10.2% in volume but a decrease of 1.8% in value compared to 2022. Importantly, exports to China accounted for 99.81% in volume and 99.67% in value of the country’s total natural rubber and synthetic rubber mix.

In 2023, many types of exported rubber decreased in both volume and value compared to 2022. However, the export of some types still grew well in volume compared to 2022; notable among them are SVR CV60, recycled rubber, RSS1, RSS4, SVR CV40, RSS5…, but these types accounted for a small proportion of Vietnam’s total rubber exports.

In 2023, the average export prices of various types of rubber all decreased significantly compared to 2022; among them, the most significant decreases were observed in compound rubber (HS: 4005) decreased by 22.8%; Skim block decreased by 22.4%; RSS3 decreased by 17.6%; SVR 10 decreased by 15.7%; SVR CV50 decreased by 14.9%; Latex decreased by 14.8%; SVR 20 decreased by 14.2%…

In the world market, rubber prices at key Asian exchanges tend to increase in January 2024 due to the optimistic prospects of the automobile market and the economic stimulus measures of the Chinese government, as well as higher oil prices. SAIC-GM-Wuling of China aims to sell 700 thousand new energy vehicles in 2024.

In the domestic market, in January 2024, the price of raw rubber latex nationwide did not fluctuate significantly compared to the previous month. At rubber companies, the current purchasing price of raw rubber latex is maintained at around 270-305 dong/TSC; among them, Phu Rieng Rubber Company keeps the purchasing price at 285-305 dong/TSC, stable compared to the end of the previous month. Binh Long Rubber Company keeps the purchasing price at 285-295 dong/TSC. Ba Ria Rubber Company keeps the purchasing price at 283-293 dong/TSC. Mang Yang Rubber Company keeps the purchasing price at 270-278 dong/TSC, stable compared to the end of the previous month.

According to the Import-Export Department, in the near future, tensions in the Red Sea are likely to cause fluctuations in futures and spot rubber prices. Natural rubber prices usually adjust according to oil prices, while oil prices are currently increasing. Many oil and gas tankers are being diverted to avoid passing through the Red Sea, increasing transportation costs and time. Moreover, the increase in oil prices leads to a higher price for synthetic rubber, as crude oil is a raw material for synthetic rubber production. Natural rubber, a competing product with synthetic rubber, also has a positive price.