Elementary schools in Hanoi have started their enrollment plans and have attractive deposit, one-time payment/year policies. I have chosen a school for my child and plan to make a one-time payment for the first academic year with a deadline in mid-March. However, the stock market’s recent sessions, along with positive forecasts for the economy and securities, as well as real estate in the Year of the Dragon – 2024, have made me restless.
Before the Lunar New Year holiday, the VN-Index had a prolonged uptrend with improved liquidity. Many forecasts suggest that the market will continue its upward trend after the Lunar New Year. Statistics show that in the past 23 years, the VN-Index has increased in 14 years after the Lunar New Year, which makes me even more anxious.
I started to have expectations that the idle money waiting to be used for my child’s education payment could generate profits if I choose the right stocks.
Although I buy stocks with a T+ mindset, I still try to research information about some industries, stocks, and even feng shui to make decisions. The previous uptrend of bank stocks made me hesitant. Bank stocks have experienced a considerable price increase recently. Some securities experts recommend banking stocks with a note to choose a good price for accumulation instead of chasing the market.
Real estate stocks have also been recommended as they have returned to an uptrend after a long period of difficulties. However, the positive period of the real estate market in general and businesses tends to fall in the second half of 2024, which makes me hold off on investing.
When liquidity increases, securities also have opportunities to have waves, or KRX waves can pull the securities group up. But the question is when that wave will come.
The government is pushing for public investment disbursement, so some stocks related to public investment can be a good choice. Steel stocks have seen positive recovery since the end of 2023 and many forecasts suggest they may perform better in 2024…
Retail stocks are also recommended by many securities firms for recovery in 2024. Some representatives of the retail sector are MWG, PNJ, FRT. Before the Lunar New Year, MWG announced its business plan for 2024 with an expected 5% revenue increase and a profit 14 times higher than in 2023. As for PNJ, despite the difficult economy, it achieved record profits with after-tax earnings of over VND 1,970 billion in 2023, the highest in 35 years of operation.
There is a high chance that I will choose to buy stocks in the retail sector.
When rationality cannot make the final decision, I started to explore feng shui. With the Wood element, a securities company provided an analysis based on the Five Elements, stating that in 2024, which carries the Fire element, retail stocks, textile, sea port, transportation, and consumer goods stocks will be suitable for people with the Wood element.
Perfectly, considering feng shui, there are retail stocks and the option of consumer goods stocks, with VNM (Vinamilk) being a representative. I decided to use the money intended for my child’s education payment to buy PNJ stocks in the last 2 sessions before the Lunar New Year break with an average price of VND 91,000 per share.
After the Lunar New Year holiday, the stock market, as predicted, increased consecutively for 4 sessions. Unfortunately, the index did not touch the stocks I bought. While the VN-Index increased for 4 consecutive sessions and had one sideways session, PNJ decreased for 3 consecutive sessions, closed at the reference price in one session, and had a minor decrease in another session. On February 23, the VN-Index had its first significant decline in the Year of the Wood Rat 2024, down 1.25%, equivalent to a 15.2-point decrease, to 1,212 points. The loss of PNJ was even greater with a 2% decrease to VND 87,800 per share.
Therefore, the money I used for “surfing” stocks is temporarily at a loss of nearly 4% after a few trading sessions.
PNJ stocks decline after Lunar New Year
Although the stock price in my securities account decreased, the consolation on my Tao Quan’s Day is the image of many PNJ stores having empty counters for gold products and fortune gold in trays.
In the published January 2024 report, PNJ stated that both revenue and profit decreased compared to the same period last year due to the late Lunar New Year. This may be the reason why PNJ stocks have decreased in recent sessions, and I might have jumped in at the short-term peak and do not know whether the stock will continue to decline or not.
At this point, I face the question of how to deal with the education payment for my child in mid-March. If the stocks increase and have a profit again, I will sell and pay for the education. On the other hand, if the stocks continue to decrease, I may become an involuntary long-term investor. The annual education fee to enjoy preferential treatment may need to be changed to monthly payment.
