Market Update on 27/2: Oil prices rise by over $1/barrel, gold, steel, rubber, and coffee all decline, iron ore hits 4-month low.

At the close of trading on February 26th, the price of crude oil increased by over 1 USD per barrel, while gold, steel, rubber, and coffee all experienced simultaneous declines. Aluminum reached its lowest point in a month, while iron ore hit its lowest level in 4 months.

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Oil prices rise over $1 per barrel

Oil prices have risen due to the demand for European diesel fuel, restricted by Russia’s sanctions and disrupted transportation operations, pushing prices higher in the context of limited US oil refinery output due to maintenance plans.

At the close of trading on 26th February, Brent crude oil rose by 91 US cents, or 1.11%, to $82.53 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose by $1.09, or 1.43%, to $77.58 per barrel.

The decline in US refinery operations and global trade disruptions have tightened the supply of diesel fuel in recent weeks, reducing US diesel fuel exports to Europe this month.

Oil prices have fluctuated between $70 and $90 per barrel since November 2023, as increased US supply and concerns of weakened Chinese demand offset OPEC+’s supply cuts, despite conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

Natural gas prices rise in the US

Natural gas prices in the US rose before the expiry of the March 2024 futures contract after falling in the past two sessions, driven by warmer weather forecasts increasing the demand for cooling gas.

The March 2024 natural gas price on the New York Exchange rose by 5.6 US cents to $1.659 per mmBTU.

Gold prices decline

Gold prices have declined as the market shifts focus to US inflation data this week, potentially affecting the progress of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts.

Spot gold on the LBMA exchange fell by 0.4% to $2,028.4 per ounce, and April 2024 gold futures on the New York Exchange fell by 0.5% to $2,038.9 per ounce.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s inflation gauge, will be released on Thursday, with a forecasted 0.4% monthly gain.

Aluminum prices at lowest in 1 month

Aluminum prices touched their lowest level in 1 month, driven by increased inventories in Shanghai and the US’s absence of sanctions on Russian metal.

London aluminum prices rose by 0.2% to $2,185 per tonne, hitting $2,175 per tonne – the lowest in 1 month – in early trading. Aluminum prices reached their highest level in 3 weeks last week.

In the previous week, aluminum inventories in Shanghai increased by 65.6% to the highest level since May 2023 (173,482 tonnes).

Iron ore prices at lowest in 4 months, steel declines

Iron ore prices on the Dalian Exchange fell to their lowest level in 4 months, as inventories in the main buyer – China – increased and construction activity slowed due to adverse weather, raising concerns about demand.

The May 2024 iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Exchange fell by 3.21% to 875 CNY ($121.57) per tonne – the lowest since October 27th, 2023 – after falling more than 6% in the past week.

At the same time, the March 2024 iron ore futures contract on the Singapore Exchange fell by 3.41% to $115.95 per tonne – the lowest since October 27th, 2023.

On the Shanghai Exchange, rebar steel prices fell by 1.29%, hot-rolled coil steel fell by 1%, cold-rolled coil steel fell by 0.98%, and stainless steel fell by 0.32%.

Rubber prices in Japan leave 7-year high

Rubber prices in Japan declined from their 7-year high, adversely affected by increased inventories and falling crude oil prices.

August 2024 rubber futures on the Osaka Exchange (OSE) fell by 5.1 JPY, or 1.67%, to 299.4 JPY ($1.99) per kg.

At the same time, May 2024 rubber futures on the Shanghai Exchange fell by 15 CNY to 13,750 CNY ($1,910.23) per tonne.

March 2024 rubber futures on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.5% to 1,595 US cents per kg.

Coffee prices decline

May 2024 Arabica coffee prices on ICE fell by 0.7 US cents, or 0.4%, to $1.796 per lb.

At the same time, May 2024 Robusta coffee prices on the London Exchange fell by 0.3% to $3,020 per tonne.

Sugar prices rise

March 2024 raw sugar futures on ICE rose by 0.53 US cents, or 2.3%, to 23.15 US cents per lb.

At the same time, May 2024 white sugar futures on the London Exchange rose by 2% to $624.5 per tonne.

Corn, soybean, and wheat prices rise

Corn and soybean prices in the US rose due to buying for profit after prices hit a more than 3-year low.

On the Chicago Exchange, March 2024 corn futures rose by 7.25 US cents to $4.07 per bushel after falling below $3.94.5 per bushel. March 2024 soybean futures rose by 3 US cents to $11.36 per bushel. March 2024 wheat futures rose by 3.75 US cents to $5.77.25 per bushel.

Therefore, corn prices have risen by more than $4.00 per bushel – the first time since November 2020. However, corn prices have fallen by 14% since the beginning of the year and 37% in the past year, as record-high crop harvests in the US and Brazil have increased supply.

Palm oil prices rise

Palm oil prices in Malaysia rose after rising in the previous week, even as exports declined, putting pressure on the market.

May 2024 palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia rose by 15 ringgit, or 0.39%, to 3,868 ringgit ($810.05) per tonne.

Key commodity prices as of morning 27/2