The State Bank today attracts an additional 15,000 billion with the number of participating banks being 14, less than yesterday (18), the interest rate is still 1.4%. The stock market has a good recovery session even though it has not equalized the decline amplitude yesterday. VCB’s selling rate still increases by 10 dong to 24,800 dong/1 USD but still lower than the previous weekend.
After two sharp declines, the market rebounds in one day with nothing special, especially when VNI reaches MA20. Liquidity decreased nearly 13% on HSX and HNX (excluding agreements), reaching nearly 21.4 trillion.
This liquidity is still good although it has decreased compared to the average of the previous week and lower than the average of the past 3 weeks. After the first selling pressure, the pressure from the holders usually decreases because the most wanted ones have exited. Usually in the downward trend, the supply-demand correlation is very important and the first thing to do is for the sellers to calm down before the buyers are excited. The simple reason is that the profit takers holding cash are basically winners, psychologically comfortable and willing to wait. Psychological pressure and fear of loss only exist on the holder’s side.
Whether the market has adjusted after 2 sessions or not is difficult to say at this time because the sense of time is too short and the magnitude is not large. Of course, adjustment does not necessarily have to be in amplitude or time, but in how many shares are transferred. On the other hand, leverage pressure is also just an estimate. Therefore, it is not necessary to speculate intuitively about the bottom of the adjustment wave. The market will have signals for this, at least showing a more reliable supply-demand balance phase than the signal of a trading session.
What to do now is to rest and wait. The market also needs time and there is nothing too greedy to worry about buying cheap. Every adjustment wave always has a few rebound sessions and there is always a feeling that the bottom is here, not to mention there are stocks going against the trend or a strong enough rebound to eat T+ and those who make a profit are usually very excited and “crowing loudly”. Market history has repeated many times.
The derivative market today is difficult to trade because VN30 has a narrow range and F1 has a discount. A flexible Long/Short strategy is suitable, VN30 also actually fluctuates quite a lot in the range of 1236.xx to 1242.xx. Because of the discount basis, Short or Long are both limited in profit margin. The most interesting thing is that VN30 has 2 trap peaks around 1242.xx. If this threshold is crossed, the index enters the range opening area and the next threshold is around 1250.xx. In the 2 times VN30 crossed 1242.xx in the afternoon, the basis was discounted so the entry point was Long, but in reality, it turned out to be a trap because VN30 was quickly pushed back. Generally, a good trading strategy must always have a stop-loss threshold and a clear reversal plan. Even a good setup is not always profitable and a blind position sometimes makes a lot of money thanks to luck. However, in the long run, luck factor cannot compensate for the discipline factor.
The technical rebound session today may continue a little more but the likelihood of a small range is high, liquidity continues to decrease before new supply appears. Decreasing liquidity in the following sessions is not a good sign. The strategy is to be Long short.
VN30 closed today at 1242.23, right at a milestone. The next resistance is 1250; 1253; 1257; 1261; 1265. Support 1236; 1231; 1221; 1213; 1206; 1201; 1197.
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