At the regular Government press conference for June 2024, held on the afternoon of July 6, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong shared that the GDP growth results for the second quarter and the first half of 2024 were very positive, especially in the second quarter. This has been hailed as a breakthrough in growth. These results have raised expectations for an even better economic performance in the latter half of 2024.
Therefore, during the regular Government meeting held on the same day (July 6), the Ministry of Planning and Investment presented two scenario-based plans to the Government to aid in their steering and governance for the remaining months of 2024.
Base Scenario: Achieve a year-end growth rate of 6.5%. This is a completely feasible target.
Higher Scenario: Projected year-end growth rate of 7% (third quarter growth of 7.4% and fourth-quarter growth of 7.6%).
According to Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong, although a rate of over 7% is considered high, it is achievable if we strive to overcome existing limitations.
“We reported to the Government a new scenario-based plan, an update to Resolution 01, targeting a year-end growth rate of approximately 6.5-7%. The Ministry of Planning and Investment proposes that the Government adopt this higher target of over 7% to enable more decisive directives toward this goal,” informed Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong.
Elaborating on this proposal, the Deputy Minister identified six factors that will positively influence economic growth in the final months of 2024.
Firstly, the positive growth trend in the region and the world, which we regularly update.
Secondly, the investment momentum, including investments from the non-state sector, especially FDI, has been robust.
Thirdly, the export drivers have recovered, and the percentage of enterprises with export orders has increased rapidly. This is very encouraging news. However, we still face challenges in exports, such as increased transportation costs and the need to reroute maritime transportation.
Fourthly, tourism has witnessed a strong rebound. International tourist arrivals in Vietnam have increased, and we set a target of over eight million visitors in the first six months. We can now aim for over ten million tourists this year, approximately 14-15 million. This is an excellent factor that can positively impact the service sector.
Fifthly, the National Assembly has passed three critical laws: the Land Law, the Real Estate Business Law, and the Housing Law. These laws will significantly impact the real estate market, which faced numerous challenges in the first half of the year. With more relaxed and facilitative regulations, the real estate market is expected to rebound in the last six months, positively affecting economic growth.
Sixthly, the steering and governance. The Government’s directives have been resolute, and ministries, sectors, and localities, especially the four key economic growth drivers, have been instructed to be more proactive in promoting growth.
At the press conference, regarding FDI attraction, Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong shared that the results for the first six months of the year were quite satisfactory. The total registered FDI for the first half of 2024 reached nearly 15.2 billion USD, an increase of 13.1% over the same period last year. Notably, new registered FDI stood at over 9.5 billion USD, a surge of 46.9%. This figure is noteworthy as new registered capital indicates new projects that will enhance the economy’s production and business capacity.
Additionally, realized FDI reached approximately 10.8 billion USD, an increase of 8.2%, also a considerable growth rate. Many new and large-scale projects have been recorded during this period.
Regarding expectations for the last six months of 2024, Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong stated that many domestic and international financial organizations hold a positive outlook on Vietnam’s FDI attraction prospects, owing to three critical factors.
Firstly, the investors’ adaptation and diversification strategy, a trend that Vietnam has embraced post-COVID, presents an opportunity for the country to attract global investment.
Secondly, Vietnam’s economic growth prospects are promising, and its resilience will positively impact investment.
Thirdly, fundamental factors. Despite numerous challenges, especially external difficulties related to the pricing of some strategic commodities in the global market, Vietnam’s FDI index remains within the range of approximately 4%, aligning with the National Assembly’s target. The inflation rate is at over 2%, indicating the stability of our macro-economy.
“This is essential, as investors seek assurance for their investments,” emphasized Deputy Minister Tran Quoc Phuong. He further shared that, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s survey, foreign investors maintain a positive outlook on Vietnam’s economy and express their desire to continue investing in the country. Consequently, we can anticipate that FDI attraction for the entire year of 2024 will reach approximately 39-40 billion USD, equivalent to or slightly higher than the same period in 2023.
Positive Signs in Exports and Imports: Early 2024
Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in January 2024 reached nearly $64.22 billion, representing an increase of 37.7% compared to the same period last year. This positive signal in the trade of goods shows a promising start to the year 2024.
Vietnam’s economy predicted to have a rapid boost in the early months, as various indicators skyrocket.
These statistics indicate that Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2024 are quite positive.
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