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According to preliminary statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in July 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached nearly 77,000 tons, equivalent to 381 million USD, up 9.7% in volume and 18.2% in value compared to June 2024. The export price also increased by 7.8%, reaching 4,951 USD/ton.
For the first seven months of 2024, Vietnam exported 980,000 tons of coffee, equivalent to nearly 3.6 billion USD, a decrease of 12.4% in volume but a significant increase of 33.5% in value compared to the same period last year. Despite the decrease in volume, the increase in value led to a 52% surge in export prices, averaging 3,683 USD/ton.
Not only export prices but domestic coffee prices have also witnessed a significant increase, currently stabilizing at VND 118,600-119,300/kg.
Europe remains Vietnam’s largest coffee export market, with the top three destinations being countries from this region.
In the first seven months of 2024, Germany was the largest market, importing 121,500 tons of coffee, equivalent to 428 million USD, a decrease of 11.6% in volume but a significant increase of 42.3% in value compared to the same period in 2023. The average export price reached 3,521 USD/ton, a substantial 61% increase compared to the previous year.
Italy was the second-largest market, with 91,082 tons of coffee imported, equivalent to 296 million USD. The export price to Italy averaged 3,245 USD/ton, a notable increase of 47.3% compared to the first seven months of 2023.
Spain, the third-largest market, imported 71,734 tons of coffee, equivalent to 273 million USD, an increase of 17.8% in volume and a significant 81% in value. The average export price to Spain was 3,810 USD/ton, a 54% increase compared to the same period last year.
In addition to the top three markets, many other countries also showed remarkable growth. Notably, China is actively purchasing coffee from Vietnam.
Specifically, in July 2024, Vietnam exported 6,022 tons of coffee to China, equivalent to 26.5 million USD, an increase of 117% in volume and 148% in value compared to July 2023. From the beginning of the year until now, China has spent 130 million USD to import 32,423 tons of coffee from Vietnam, an increase of 27.2% in volume and 58.3% in value. The average export price reached 4,013 USD/ton, a 24.5% increase compared to the previous year.
The increase in coffee exports in recent times, especially in the EU market, is due to the focus of coffee enterprises on reform, change, digitization, and the production of diverse and value-added products.
Additionally, the commitment to removing tariff barriers through the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) has created a potential opportunity for Vietnam’s coffee market in the EU, with 93% of tariff lines reduced to 0%. In particular, processed coffee products and 39 geographical indications related to coffee in Vietnam are now protected in the EU market.
China is also one of the fastest-growing coffee markets globally. As the number of coffee consumers in China continues to rise, the coffee segment generated revenue of 15.34 billion USD in 2022. The average coffee consumption per person reached 0.07 kg in 2022, presenting a promising market for Vietnam to explore.
However, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts a decrease in Vietnam’s coffee exports in the remaining months of the third quarter due to low supply. The supply of coffee is expected to increase again in October when the 2024-2025 coffee harvest begins.
In the 2023-2024 crop year, Vietnam’s coffee production is estimated at 1.47 million tons, the lowest in four years and a 20% decrease compared to the 2022-2023 crop year (according to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development). Adverse weather conditions suggest that production in the 2024-2025 crop year will likely remain low. Therefore, excluding stock from the previous year, Vietnam will have approximately 200,000 tons of coffee available for export from now until September.
Despite the decrease in volume, the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit from higher prices. Global Robusta coffee prices are expected to continue their strong upward trend due to concerns over limited supply from Vietnam.
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