Forecasting Figures: Unlocking Vietnam’s Export Success
In a recent interview with VTV Times, a representative from the Department of Export and Import (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade) revealed impressive growth in Vietnam’s key export sectors, including agriculture, textiles, and footwear. This year, these industries have consistently achieved double-digit increases in their trade values.
For instance, fruit and vegetable exports have been on a remarkable upward trajectory, recording a 24.3% surge to reach $3.83 billion in the first seven months of the year. This growth is evident in exports to South Korea, Japan, and China. With the current momentum, Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports are projected to hit a record high of $7 billion this year, with durian alone expected to bring in $3 billion.
Similarly, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association reported an estimated $23.64 billion in export turnover for the industry during the same seven-month period, reflecting a nearly 5% increase year-on-year. This positive trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the year, as historical data suggests that demand for goods typically spikes in the final months.
The textile industry has set its sights on $44 billion in exports for 2024, a goal that the association believes is well within reach. Meanwhile, the footwear industry is also experiencing rapid expansion, confidently forecasting exports of $26-27 billion for this year.
Reinforcing this positive outlook, the latest statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs show that the country’s export turnover in the first half of July reached nearly $19.9 billion, a 22.3% increase compared to the previous period. This strong performance has pushed Vietnam’s total export turnover for the first seven months of the year to nearly $227.5 billion, marking a 16% increase year-on-year.
Businesses ramp up exports to the Chinese market
Emphasizing the cyclical nature of global demand, the representative from the Department of Export and Import highlighted that the year-end holidays typically spur a significant increase in consumption, which bodes well for Vietnam’s export prospects. Mr. Vu Ba Phu, Director of the Trade Promotion Agency (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade), shared a similar sentiment, expressing confidence in the country’s ability to surpass the 6% export growth target set by the Ministry for 2024.
Navigating Uncertain Waters: Staying Vigilant Amid Global Challenges
Despite the optimistic outlook, economic experts caution that Vietnam must remain vigilant and proactive in the face of a complex and unpredictable global landscape. The world economy continues to navigate significant risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas, which show signs of spreading to neighboring countries.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s message of a one-time rate cut this year adds to the uncertainty. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Department of Export and Import, points out another challenge: China’s excess capacity, which will intensify competition in the global market. As consumer demand weakens, China’s surplus goods at lower prices may flood other countries.
Mr. Hai also draws attention to the persistently high sea freight rates, particularly on Vietnam’s key export routes, and the congestion at some Asian ports, which cause delays in cargo handling and disrupt delivery schedules. Given these challenges, economic experts emphasize the need for trade promotion activities that leverage e-commerce and digital economy, effectively connecting businesses, localities, and markets through Vietnam’s trade offices abroad.
Mr. Phu suggests that localities should develop economic cooperation and trade promotion strategies with foreign markets to expand trade, attract industrial cooperation, and promote investment. In the short term, they can explore twinning arrangements or establish cooperation mechanisms to create a concrete and long-term framework for collaboration. Meanwhile, associations and businesses are advised to enhance their capabilities to access foreign distribution channels with support from the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Mr. Phu emphasizes the critical role of Vietnam’s trade offices abroad in coordinating with industry associations and businesses to enhance the promotion and branding of Vietnamese export products in international markets. Regarding Vietnam’s neighboring giant, China, experts recommend continuing to develop sustainable trade activities through official export channels at border gates and further facilitating the export of agricultural products to this market of a billion people.
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Mr. Le Hoang Tai, Deputy Director of the Department of Trade Promotion, Ministry of Industry and Trade, stated this at a press conference introducing the International Exhibition of Textile and Garment Industry and Technology 2024 (VIATT 2024) on February 23.
