The domestic stock market has just had an impressive trading week with 4/5 sessions gaining points. VN-Index is heading towards the old peak of 1,300 points, however, the market sentiment becomes more cautious as the positive information has been somewhat reflected in the impressive gains recently.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son, Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities JSC, assessed that trading before the September 2 holiday is quite important for the domestic stock market, with a value of testing demand after VN-Index recovered 100 points from the beginning of the month. Investors are likely to take profit in the range of 1,285 – 1,305 points, with many sectors gaining 7-10%.
Accordingly, this week, the market trend may slow down, investors should choose the right buying point, waiting for a breakthrough signal after the holiday. The current supportive factor, giving hope for the recovery of global financial markets as well as Vietnamese stock markets, is the fact that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to loosen monetary policy.
The stock market last week recorded many positive supporting information. Photo: CTV
VNDirect Securities Corporation’s analyst team assessed that the Fed will almost certainly cut interest rates at the September meeting, but the market’s current major concern is the extent and intensity of the Fed’s rate cuts by the end of this year. The market expects the Fed to cut about 0.75-1% of the policy rate from now until the end of the year. If the Fed comes up with a more cautious plan, it could affect investors’ expectations and the market.
“VN-Index is facing strong resistance in the range of 1,290 – 1,300 points. Investors should limit new disbursements on stocks that have recovered strongly in this area, maintain a moderate stock portfolio, and limit the use of high leverage to manage risks. If the market falls to the support area around 1,255 – 1,260 points, it will open up opportunities to accumulate more stocks…”, VNDirect recommended.
Experts from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said that after a good increase, it is highly likely that the VN-Index will accumulate again from 3-5 sessions before heading to the 1300 point region, so the market fluctuation will be a good opportunity for investors to increase the proportion at a good discounted price. Therefore, we recommend that investors continue to hold their portfolios and consider further disbursement for stocks in sectors such as banking, real estate, and securities.”
Amending laws and strongly preventing manipulation
Domestically, a notable development that has attracted public attention is the Ministry of Finance’s proposal to amend and supplement a number of provisions of the 2019 Securities Law, which is currently being considered by investors. The draft proposes to legalize the act of stock market manipulation. This is an important highlight with the expectation that it will bring trust to the market, investors, and organizations.
Recently, after 2 weeks of trial and deliberation, on August 5, the People’s Court of Hanoi sentenced 50 defendants in a case that occurred at FLC Group. The defendant Trinh Van Quyet, former Chairman of the Board of Directors of FLC Group, was sentenced to 18 years in prison for the crime of “Property appropriation by fraud”, 3 years in prison for the crime of “Manipulating the stock market”. The total sentence is 21 years in prison.
This is one of the few cases of violations that have been criminally handled, while there are countless cases where individuals are only administratively sanctioned. For example, in May 2024, four individual investors, Mr. Mai Huu Phuc, Ms. Vo Nhu Thao, Ms. Do Thuy Tien, and Mr. Tran Minh Hoang, were administratively sanctioned by the State Securities Commission with a fine of VND 6 billion for using multiple accounts to trade PSH stocks, which is an act of stock market manipulation. Also, for many consecutive years, the behavior of buying and selling, “herding” in the market has become a “problem” that has forced the State Securities Commission to continuously issue sanctions.
From these cases and through supervision and inspection, the Ministry of Finance recently opined that it is necessary to legalize the provisions on manipulative behavior in Decree 156 to ensure conformity with the reality in the market.
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