Who Benefits from the USD Breaking the 25,000 VND Mark?

At 11:00 a.m. on August 28, Vietcombank listed the buying rate for USD at 24,660 VND/USD and the selling rate at 25,000 VND/USD.

Sacombank, ACB, and BIDV also offered the same selling rate, while their buying rates varied.

Eximbank, on the other hand, offered a buying rate of 24,660 VND/USD and a slightly lower selling rate of 24,990 VND/USD, falling below the 25,000 VND mark.

Commercial bank USD rates have been on a downward trend in recent days. Since the beginning of August, USD rates have dropped by approximately 400 VND. The rates are currently at their lowest point this year.

The drop in commercial bank USD rates comes as the US dollar has also been weakening in the international market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded at 100.5 points this morning, a significant decrease from the high of 106 points a few months ago.

Mr. Nguyen Thanh Lam, Director of Analysis for Individual Customers at Maybank Securities, shared his insights with Nguoi Lao Dong newspaper, attributing the sharp decline in the US dollar to the high likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in September. This move is expected to narrow the interest rate gap between the USD and the VND, which was a primary factor contributing to the VND’s depreciation against the USD previously. The projected cut is anticipated to be between 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points in September and around 1 percentage point for the whole year.

“With the root cause addressed, the VND has regained strength against the USD. For the economy as a whole, this means a cooling down of import prices, easing inflationary pressures. The reduced pressure on exchange rates also provides the State Bank of Vietnam with more room to maneuver in terms of monetary policy,” said Mr. Lam.

According to Maybank’s expert, sectors that rely heavily on imported raw materials, such as steel, petroleum, and beverages, as well as those with high levels of foreign currency debt, including aviation, electricity, steel, and automobiles, will directly benefit from this development.

Previously, several airlines had cited challenges posed by increasing input costs due to exchange rate fluctuations. For instance, Vietnam Airlines has stated on multiple occasions that a 1% increase in exchange rates would result in approximately 300 billion VND in additional costs for the company annually. As a result, these businesses are hoping for stable exchange rates at the lowest possible level.