The Odd Economic Indicators in a Recession

When economic downturn looms, relying on traditional economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates can be fraught with challenges. These conventional metrics often lag due to statistical processing, and are susceptible to assumptions and calculation methodologies, resulting in potentially conflicting or contradictory conclusions.

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In times of crisis, the use of simple yet nuanced and economically sensitive indicators becomes prevalent. In the US, there are no fewer than 30 such indicators in use. Here are some typical examples:

Source: Consolidated

These indicators may still be quite unfamiliar in Vietnam, mainly due to issues with a lack of information and statistical data. However, they have been widely used in the US, especially during economic crises, and most of them have been proven reliable to some extent. The common thread among these indicators is that they reflect the state of the economy from the demand side. Although they may not be entirely accurate and require further confirmation through in-depth research, if you are astute enough, they can offer new perspectives and help you identify issues early on. In today’s world, information advantage is money.

The advantage of these indicators is that they can be detected very early on, in everyday life, without going through complex data processing or in-depth analysis as economists and financial experts typically do. This provides us with early hints about the future economic situation, before official data and traditional economic indicators are released as confirmation.

However, because they are so simple, the findings are often based solely on empirical experience, only valid in a specific context, and may not hold true in the future. Additionally, due to the lack of in-depth research into fundamental economic relationships and the absence of support from socio-economic theory or science, they merely reflect a statistical correlation. Therefore, they should be used with caution and not taken as certainties, much like folk wisdom such as “low-flying dragonflies indicate rain, high-flying dragonflies indicate sunshine, and medium-flying dragonflies indicate cloudiness.”

LH

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