“Post-Flood: Curbing Price Hikes, Combating Inflation”

Inflation has eased and market prices have stabilized. However, according to experts, the unpredictable nature of floods and their potential impact need to be considered in the coming months. If the production and business activities in the areas affected by the third storm can be quickly restored, and supply-demand connections are re-established, leading to stable prices, inflation can be kept under control and this year's GDP growth target can be achieved, or even exceeded.

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Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported that the consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August 2024, despite a slight increase in the price index for 10 out of 11 groups of consumer goods and services. The stability was largely due to a 1.98% decrease in the transportation group, helping to offset the rise in other sectors. On average, CPI increased by just over 4% compared to the same period last year, indicating a slowdown in inflation. However, experts caution that unpredictable weather events, such as storms and floods, can impact commodity prices and require short-term and long-term solutions to stabilize the market.

Vegetable prices surge in traditional markets in Hanoi following the storm.

Economist Vu Vinh Phu suggested that the agriculture sector should immediately focus on short-term crop and livestock production to recover from the storm’s impact. He also emphasized the need for the agriculture and industry sectors to collaborate in the long term by constructing reserve warehouses and investing in advanced processing technologies to produce canned foods. Currently, most businesses operate on a buy-and-sell basis, leading to challenges in ensuring a stable food supply during natural disasters, as cold storage reserves are limited.

If production and business activities in the areas affected by Storm No. 3 are quickly restored, and supply-demand connections are stabilized, inflation can be controlled, and this year’s GDP growth target can be achieved or even exceeded. Economist Dr. Le Duy Binh, Executive Director of Economica Vietnam, a consulting and economic research organization, attributed the targeted growth rate of 6.5-7% this year to factors such as strong export recovery, sustained public investment, and increased budget spending.

Dr. Binh noted that, in addition to the impact of storms and floods, seasonal factors, such as increased demand during the last months of the year, can also put pressure on inflation. He highlighted the potential influence of import-export market dynamics and raw material prices. At the same time, he pointed out a favorable factor in controlling inflation through the end of the year: the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowering its base interest rate, which would reduce pressure on exchange rates and inflation.

To curb inflation, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has proposed several solutions, including proactive forecasting, scenario building, and price management. They emphasize the need to monitor commodity groups with high weightings and develop appropriate strategies. The ministry also suggests carefully considering the timing and approach of price adjustments to prevent shortages and sudden price hikes in essential goods like food and fuel. Ensuring a stable supply of electricity and fuel and taking a hard line against hoarding and price manipulation are also key aspects of their plan.

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