Don’t Let the Economy Be… Dragged Back

The recent Typhoon No. 3 and floods have wreaked havoc on various economic sectors in 26 northern provinces, which contribute to 41% of the country's GDP. With the economy at risk, experts emphasize the urgent need for swift and bold economic decisions to support businesses and households in these affected regions.

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The initial damage caused by Storm No. 3 amounts to over VND 40,000 billion, with a potential 0.15% decrease in GDP. The storm hit Northern Vietnam during the peak production and export period towards the end of the year. The tourism industry is at risk of missing the international tourist season (September 2024 to April 2025).

Businesses and households suffered severe losses after Storm No. 3. Photo: Hoang Manh Thang

In an interview with Tien Phong, Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former Director General of the General Statistics Office, expressed concern about the situation of many businesses and agricultural production and trading households in localities such as Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, and northern provinces, which were almost “devastated” by the storm and floods. “For severely affected households, no solution can immediately salvage and restore their situation to the pre-disaster state in the coming months. Currently, it is necessary to support the business sector, production and trading households, and the agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries to help them recover their production bases for the next year,” emphasized Mr. Lam. He also suggested that the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank quickly deploy financial and credit support packages with preferential interest rate policies and debt restructuring and rescheduling to assist businesses and the people.

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Policy Research (VEPR), also stated that it would take time for businesses and households to recover their production after the storm. Support needs to be provided as soon as possible to facilitate this process. The localities affected by the storm and floods also require substantial resources from the state budget for recovery.

Given that everything must be done as soon as possible, Mr. Viet suggested that the State Bank consider the specific conditions and allow commercial banks to relax the credit safety criteria when disbursing loans for post-storm business support. The state support package for these loans needs to simplify procedures, especially when the right/targeted subjects are identified.

“The state budget must provide relief and direct support to the affected subjects, but it also needs to balance exemptions, reductions, and extensions of taxes and fees to support businesses and households in recovering,” said Mr. Viet. He also proposed that the Ministry of Finance and the Government continue to study and implement policies on tax and fee exemptions and reductions.

According to a report by the State Bank, 20 out of 26 provinces and cities are estimated to have affected debt of about VND 80,000 billion (accounting for about 5% of the local debt). Of this, Quang Ninh and Hai Phong have 11,700 affected customers with outstanding loans of about VND 23,100 billion. Regarding the program to overcome the consequences of the storm and floods and restore production and business activities, the Ministry of Planning and Investment said that there would be mechanisms, policies, and solutions to cut and simplify administrative procedures to implement support policies.

Maintain Growth Momentum

According to estimates by the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), the economic growth rate in the last six months of the year for the whole country and many localities is expected to slow down. Overall, GDP may decrease by 0.15% compared to the growth scenario that could reach 6.8 – 7%. The GRDP growth rate (gross regional domestic product) of Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Lao Cai, etc., decreased by more than 0.5%. All three growth pillars, including industry and construction, agriculture, forestry, and fishery, and services, were heavily impacted by the natural disaster.

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet assessed that Storm No. 3 would undoubtedly affect this year’s growth prospects, although the extent is yet to be fully determined. “In reality, Vietnam’s growth over the past time has been mainly supported by external factors, with exports and imports driving the production sector. Basically, the storm has had a localized impact and has not significantly affected the export supply chain in the short term (except for the agricultural sector). However, in the long run, if some issues (infrastructure bottlenecks, recovery of upstream production chains, and import supply disruptions) are not addressed, increasing costs and difficulties for businesses will undoubtedly affect the domestic market and continue to drag down the growth prospects,” Mr. Viet said.

Former Director General of the General Statistics Office, Mr. Nguyen Bich Lam, also assessed that, given the warning that GDP may be dragged down due to the impact of storms and floods, the first solution to achieve this year’s goal is to maintain the existing growth drivers, such as public investment. “The amount of capital disbursed in 2024 is nearly VND 100,000 billion lower than in the previous year. If the disbursement reaches over 95% as planned, the contribution of public investment to growth cannot be higher than last year. However, this is a good driving force to attract other drivers such as foreign direct investment (FDI) and private investment,” said Mr. Lam.

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