According to Techcombank Priority’s spotlight newsletter on the real estate market, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are expected to contribute approximately 36,200 high- and low-rise apartments to the market in 2024.
Specifically, Hanoi will see an additional 26,100 units, while Ho Chi Minh City will add 10,100. As of now, the actual supply meets only 46% of the anticipated supply.
Thus far, Hanoi and its northern neighboring provinces have supplied around 13,300 high- and low-rise apartments to the market (accounting for 50% of the expected supply for 2024).
Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City and its southern neighboring provinces have contributed approximately 3,200 high- and low-rise apartments (constituting only 32% of the projected supply for 2024).
In light of the recent surge in land auction prices in Hanoi, especially in outlying districts, authorities have temporarily halted land auctions to review legal aspects. After thorough scrutiny and the implementation of stringent monitoring measures, Hanoi will resume auctions for over 250 land lots in peripheral districts in the coming months.
The tighter regulations governing land auctions are expected to curb speculative fever (with some speculators already forfeiting their deposits) and address the genuine housing needs of the populace while boosting land-related fiscal revenues.
The report states that the supply of high- and low-rise residences in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City improved in August and the first half of September 2024, but in reality, it only meets 46% of the projected supply for the entire year.
“Compared to the pre-COVID era (2019), the supply for the whole of 2024 is only 50%-60%. This indicates that supply is still within manageable limits. However, Hanoi is currently experiencing a situation where some speculators are driving up land prices, creating a speculative fever in certain areas. As such, individual investors need to be cautious in appraising land prices before making investment decisions,” Techcombank Priority’s spotlight report commented.
The backlog of nearly 9,000 land-related dossiers in Ho Chi Minh City due to the new land price framework has resulted in an increasingly scarce supply in the city. Consequently, the real estate markets in provinces neighboring Ho Chi Minh City, such as Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Long An, are gaining traction as some investors redirect their focus to these areas to seize opportunities in the early stages of the southern real estate market’s recovery.
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