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A Resilient Economy: Aiming for Over 7% GDP Growth in 2024

8 October, 2024

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chairs the September 2024 Regular Government Meeting online with 63 localities – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

On the morning of October 7, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh chaired the September 2024 Regular Government Meeting with the participation of 63 localities via videoconference.

Also attending the meeting were members of the Politburo, Secretariat of the Party Central Committee, members of the Government, leaders of ministries, sectors, central agencies, secretaries and chairmen of provincial and municipal People’s Committees, and leaders of several state-owned enterprises.

The meeting focused on discussing the direction and administration, the socio-economic situation in the third quarter and the first nine months, and key tasks and solutions for October, the fourth quarter, and the coming time to strive to complete the set goals and tasks.

Resolute direction, close to the practical situation

Reports and opinions at the meeting unanimously assessed that, in terms of direction and administration in the first nine months, since the beginning of the year, the Government and the Prime Minister have focused on directing the levels, branches, and localities to closely follow the practical situation and drastically, synchronously, and effectively deploy the resolutions and conclusions of the Central Committee, Politburo, Secretariat, and National Assembly in the spirit of the theme of 2024: “Discipline, responsibility, proactive and responsive, accelerate creativity, effective and sustainable.”

In particular, priority has been given to promoting growth in association with macroeconomic stability, curbing inflation, and ensuring the major balances of the economy; promoting structural transformation, digital transformation, and green transition.

Along with that, the Government has focused on implementing the three strategic breakthroughs (on institutions, human resources, and infrastructure), especially reviewing and perfecting institutions, laws, mechanisms, and policies, organizing nine thematic meetings of the Government on law building, issuing 122 decrees and 215 resolutions of the Government, and 1,129 decisions and 35 directives of the Prime Minister, and organizing three meetings of the Steering Committee for reviewing and handling legal problems under the Prime Minister’s chair.

Promoting science and technology, innovation and entrepreneurship, national digital transformation, Proposal 06, reducing and simplifying administrative procedures, and removing difficulties and obstacles for production and business have also been given attention. The deployment of projects and strategic infrastructure works has been promoted, especially the North-South expressway projects and the completion of the 500kV power line Project – Circuit 3…

Ensuring social security and improving people’s lives, focusing on natural disaster prevention and control (especially the synchronous implementation of emergency response solutions before, during, and after Storm No. 3; the Prime Minister issued 12 urgent documents, and right after the storm, the Government issued Resolution 143 on overcoming the consequences of floods and storms); developing social housing; and eliminating temporary, dilapidated houses have also been paid attention.

Consolidating and strengthening national defense and security, firmly protecting independence, sovereignty, and social order and safety have also been focused on. External affairs and international integration have been promoted, especially the external activities of the leaders of the Party and State.

The Government has also prepared carefully and served the Central Conferences and the National Assembly sessions well; focused on effectively implementing the activities of the Socio-Economic Sub-Committee serving the 14th Congress of the Party.

The reports and opinions pointed out 13 outstanding results in the socio-economic situation in the first nine months.

First, the biggest goal of macroeconomic stabilization, inflation control, growth promotion, ensuring the major balances of the economy, controlling budget deficit, public debt, government debt, and foreign debt, improving people’s material and spiritual life, and ensuring national defense and security has been achieved.

Second, growth has been promoted, with higher growth in the later quarters than in the previous ones, and the nine-month growth higher than the set scenario: GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.66%, in the second quarter by 6.93%, in the third quarter by 7.4%, and in the first nine months by 6.82%. All three sectors of agriculture, industry, and services grew well. The economic structure continued to shift positively.

Third, the macro economy was stable, inflation was under control, and the major balances were ensured. The consumer price index (CPI) averaged 3.88% in the first nine months (core inflation rose by 2.69%). Energy security, food security, and labor supply-demand balance were ensured.

Fourth, exports continued to grow strongly, with large trade surplus, contributing to ensuring the balance of payments. Export turnover increased by 15.4% (the domestic economic sector increased by 20.7%; the FDI sector increased by 13.4%); import turnover increased by 17.3%; and the trade surplus was estimated at 20.8 billion USD.

Fifth, the service and tourism sectors have strongly recovered. Total retail sales of goods and service consumption in the first nine months increased by 8.8% over the same period. The number of international visitors in the first nine months reached over 12.7 million, up 43.0%.

Sixth, the state budget revenue and expenditure situation has continued to improve markedly. Total state budget revenue in the first nine months reached 85.1% of the estimate for the year, up 17.9% over the same period. Public debt, government debt, national foreign debt, and budget deficit were well controlled, lower than the set limits; at the same time, in the first nine months, 116.4 thousand billion VND of taxes, fees, charges, and land rent were exempted and reduced; the total for the whole year of 2024 is expected to be nearly 200 thousand billion VND.

Seventh, investment in development continued to achieve positive results, creating a driving force for economic growth. Total social investment capital in the first nine months increased by 6.8%; in which, state capital investment increased by 4.1%; the non-state sector increased by 7.1%, and the FDI sector increased by 10.7%. FDI attraction in the first nine months reached 24.78 billion USD, up 11.6%; FDI disbursement reached 17.3 billion USD, up 8.9% (the highest in the last 5 years).

Eighth, business development continued to show positive signs, with 183,000 newly established and re-operating enterprises in the first nine months, higher than the number of businesses leaving the market (163,000).

Nineth, administrative reform has been focused on, especially reducing and simplifying administrative procedures, promoting national digital transformation, and implementing Proposal 06. The e-Government Development Index in 2024 increased by 15 ranks, ranking 71/193.

Tenth, startups and innovations have been strongly promoted. The Global Innovation Index in 2024 rose by 2 ranks compared to 2023, ranking 44/133, up 4 ranks compared to 2022.

Eleventh, the fields of culture and society have been paid attention to; social security has been ensured, and people’s lives have been improved. The average income of laborers in the first nine months reached 7.6 million VND/month, up 7.4% over the same period. In the third quarter, 96.1% of households assessed their income as stable or higher than the previous year.

Twelfth, active support has been given to people and businesses in coping with, preventing, and overcoming the consequences of Storm No.3 (Yagi). In which, 3.4 thousand billion VND was mobilized along with many materials and essential goods; the Government provided 432.6 tons of rice to support the people; ministries, branches, and localities are focusing on implementing support measures.

Thirteenth, the political and social situation was stable; national defense and security were strengthened; external affairs and international integration were promoted. Many international organizations highly appreciated the results and prospects of the Vietnamese economy. The IMF raised its growth forecast for Vietnam in 2024 to 6.1%, the WB forecast 6.1%, ADB forecast 6%; Fitch Ratings forecast Vietnam’s growth at 6-7% in the medium term, although it assessed that the world and regional situation is still difficult.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh: Striving for GDP growth of about 7% in 2024 – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

“There is no reason not to decentralize, devolve power, and eliminate the mechanism of asking and giving”

Analyzing the domestic and foreign situation in the coming time, the Prime Minister clarified that we determine that there are opportunities, advantages, and difficulties and challenges, but there are more difficulties and challenges. The Government and the Prime Minister request that ministries, branches, and localities closely follow the international and domestic situation to have appropriate policies, timely, flexible, and effective solutions, and continue to drastically implement tasks and solutions with the spirit of: High determination – Great effort – Decisive action – Striving to comprehensively complete the goals and tasks of 2024, creating a momentum for 2025.

The Prime Minister emphasized the need for strong decentralization and devolution of power as required by the 10th Central Committee Conference with the view of “localities decide, localities do, and localities take responsibility”. “There is no reason for us not to decentralize, devolve power, and eliminate the mechanism of asking and giving. In the implementation process, there may be difficulties and contradictions, then we will continue to solve them,” said the Prime Minister.

Regarding the 12 key tasks and solutions, the Prime Minister first of all requested to focus on preventing and overcoming the consequences of natural disasters and storms, stabilizing people’s lives, and promoting the recovery of production and business; drastically and effectively implementing Resolution 143/NQ-CP on key tasks and solutions to urgently overcome the consequences of Storm No. 3 (Yagi).

Second, well prepare, ensure the progress and quality of reports and proposals at the 8th Session of the 14th National Assembly with the spirit of proactively implementing according to the assigned functions and tasks, closely coordinating with the agencies of the National Assembly and the agencies in the political system, proactively and promptly handling problems, creating high consensus in the people and among the agencies. Effectively implementing the Conclusion of the 10th Central Committee Conference with many important contents, including those on institution building and completion and coordination between the National Assembly and the Government.

Third, continue to prioritize promoting growth in association with maintaining macroeconomic stability, curbing inflation, and ensuring the major balances of the economy. Strive for a GDP growth rate of about 7% for the whole year, with the growth rate in the fourth quarter from 7.5-8%.

The monetary policy shall be proactively, flexibly, timely, and effectively administered; coordinating synchronously, harmoniously, and closely with the fiscal policy of reasonable expansion, focusing on key areas, and other macro policies; not administering in a “jerking” manner.

The SBV shall stabilize the exchange rate, strive to reduce lending interest rates, increase access to credit, focus on priority areas, strive for a credit growth of about 15%, and control bad debt risks.

Governor of the State Bank Nguyen Thi Hong speaks at the meeting – Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

The Ministry of Finance shall strive to increase revenue, save regular expenditure, drastically deploy digital transformation, and apply e-invoices in revenue management; drastically save regular expenditure and increase investment development expenditure. Effectively implement policies on tax, fee, and charge exemption and reduction. Strive to increase revenue by at least 10% compared to the estimate for the whole year.

Effectively exploit fiscal policy space; the Ministry of Finance shall urgently study and propose the issuance of an additional 100,000 billion VND for investment in strategic national infrastructure works.

Fourth, focus on strongly promoting and creating breakthroughs in the disbursement of public investment capital, strongly promoting the three national target programs, striving for a disbursement rate of at least 95%. Promote the activities of the Prime Minister’s working groups and 26 working groups of Government members working with localities right after the meeting. Speed up the progress of important and key national projects and works; the North-South expressway system; prepare for investment in important railway projects.

Fifth, focus on renewing the traditional growth drivers (investment, export, consumption) and strongly promoting the new growth drivers such as regional and inter-regional economies, urban areas; digital transformation, green transition, circular economy, sharing economy, knowledge economy, and new, high-tech industries (such as semiconductor chips, AI, cloud computing…). Soon submit to the Government for promulgation of a decree on the investment support fund.

Sixth, promote the improvement of institutions and laws, remove legal obstacles, reform administrative procedures, strongly promote national digital transformation, improve the investment and business environment; promote national digital transformation, Proposal 06, and the construction of the National Data Center.

Seventh, continue to handle thoroughly the problems and projects that have been left behind, prolonged, weak banks, the handling plan for SCB, the projects of building Campus 2 of Bach Mai and Viet Duc hospitals; urgently remove difficulties and obstacles for projects and land in the inspection and audit conclusions and judgments mentioned in Proposal 153.

Eighth, pay attention to the fields of culture, society, and environment; ensure social security, improve people’s lives, and invest in cultural institutions. Closely monitor the situation of natural disasters and storms, respond promptly and effectively, and minimize damage. Effectively and substantially implement the Emulation Movement of joining hands to eliminate temporary and dilapidated houses nationwide. Effectively implement the Scheme on developing human resources for the semiconductor industry and the Strategy for the development of the semiconductor industry. The Ministry of Health shall not let medicines, medical equipment, and supplies be lacking…

Ninth, strengthen national defense and security; promote corruption prevention and control; improve the efficiency of external affairs and international integration. Well organize the external activities of high-ranking leaders; promote economic diplomacy, and negotiate new FTAs.

Tenth, strengthen information and communications, especially policy communications, contributing to creating social consensus and promoting the exciting and striving spirit of the whole society.

Eleventh, the Ministry of Finance shall urgently submit to the Standing Committee of the National Assembly the principles, criteria, and norms for allocating regular state budget expenditures for 2026 and investment capital expenditures for the period of 2026 – 2030. In which, it is necessary to pay attention to giving priority to capital sources for projects with regional, national, and international connectivity and spillover effects, especially the connection of the expressway system with airports and seaports, and the implementation of the high-speed railway and urban railway systems.

Twelfth, actively implement the tasks of the Socio-Economic Sub-Committee; well prepare to serve the Party Congresses at all levels, towards the 14th Congress of the Party.

The Prime Minister proposed that the ministers, heads of branches, secretaries, and chairmen of provincial and municipal People’s Committees pay special attention to concentrating on leading and directing the implementation of the following five groups of important and urgent tasks and solutions:

One, give priority to growth, promote traditional growth drivers, and strongly promote new growth drivers.

Two, do not let food, electricity, gasoline and oil, water, medicine, medical equipment and supplies, and input materials for production, business, and people’s lives be lacking.

Three, coordinate with the Standing Committee of the National Assembly, the committees of the National Assembly to carefully prepare laws and resolutions submitted to the National Assembly in the direction of increasing decentralization and devolution, reducing administrative procedures, managing well, and creating development. development.

Four, complete housing support for households affected by natural disasters, deploy a credit package of 140,0