Global gold prices plummeted during Tuesday’s trading session (October 8), pressured by the resilient US dollar and rising US Treasury bond yields, as markets no longer anticipate a 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting. Investors also exercised caution ahead of the Fed’s release of September meeting minutes and the latest inflation data from the US Department of Labor.
At the close of trading, spot gold prices in New York fell by $20.90/oz compared to the previous session’s close, equivalent to a 0.79% decline, ending at $2,622.20/oz, according to data from the Kitco exchange.
At around 8 am Vietnam time, gold prices in the Asian market dipped by $0.20/oz compared to the US session close, trading at the $2,622.00/oz level. Converted using Vietcombank’s USD selling rate, this price is equivalent to nearly VND 79.1 million/lotte, a decrease of VND 700,000/lotte compared to yesterday morning.
Vietcombank quoted USD exchange rates at 24,635 VND (buying) and 25,025 VND (selling) at the beginning of the day, a decrease of 25 VND at each price point compared to the previous morning.
Tuesday’s decline marked the fifth consecutive session of losses for gold prices and the sharpest percentage drop since late August. The precious metal has been range-bound and consolidating since reaching an all-time high of $2,685.42/oz on September 26.
“Gold prices have pulled back in recent days due to shifting rate expectations,” said David Meger, director of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, in a statement to Reuters.
According to data from the FedWatch Tool on the CME exchange, markets are now betting on an 87.5% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in the upcoming meeting, with this entire percentage attributed to a 0.25-point reduction. The remaining 12.5% indicates the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.75-5%.
Just last week, the probability of a 50-basis point cut in November fluctuated between 30-40%.
The shifting rate expectations have pushed up US Treasury yields and the dollar index, exerting further downward pressure on gold.
On Monday, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note surpassed the 4% threshold for the first time in two months. During Tuesday’s session, the yield on the 10-year note eased slightly but remained above 4%, closing the session at around 4.02%.
The Dollar Index, a measure of the US dollar’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, ended Tuesday’s session at 102.55 points, up 0.01 points from the previous close. Over the past five sessions, the index has climbed more than 0.8%, according to data from MarketWatch.
For the remainder of the week, investors’ attention will focus on US inflation data, including the consumer price index (CPI) scheduled for release on Thursday and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday. Prior to that, the Fed will publish the minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday.
The inflation reports will play a crucial role in determining the magnitude of the Fed’s rate cut in November, subsequently influencing the trajectory of gold prices.
“The inflation data to be released by the US on Thursday is likely to show that price pressures continue to ease, but it is unlikely to rekindle fresh hopes for a significant rate cut by the Fed. Therefore, gold prices can only rely on geopolitical risks to climb higher,” stated Commerzbank in a report.
Christopher Watling, a strategist at Longview Economics, attributed the halt in gold’s upward momentum to the rise in US Treasury yields and the sudden strength of the US dollar. “In addition to shifting rate expectations and currency movements, gold is also vulnerable from the perspective of investor positioning, sentiment, and technicals,” Watling remarked.
