Today’s price action was disrupted by the patience of waiting capital, which halted any potential recovery. It was only when prices dropped significantly that larger waiting orders emerged. Following last weekend’s low-volume session, liquidity remains extremely low, which could be seen as a positive sign as those most eager to cut losses have already exited.
The surprisingly positive macroeconomic data released over the weekend created some initial excitement, but the capital flow “disagreed.” Weak buying pressure quickly led to a weakening of the upward momentum. The market is currently in the hands of sellers rather than buyers. Price negotiations will continue to create many sessions of range-bound trading, as seen today, with low liquidity until those holding capital become more aggressive.
Looking at intraday fluctuations, the market is creating a sense of frustration, as any upward movement is met with selling pressure pushing prices down. Only those holding stocks are frustrated, while those holding cash are at an advantage. The market is still in the “margin-testing” phase and has not yet reached the stage of testing investors’ psychology. It is only when stockholders become completely indifferent to prices that the market will enter the bottom-forming phase.
Today’s session had two positive aspects. Firstly, liquidity: in a downward trend, after distribution sessions and sharp declines with high volume, a slowdown in trading can indicate either a reduction in selling pressure or a decrease in loose stock. Today’s matched trading volume on the two exchanges was only 11.5 trillion, similar to mid-September levels. Secondly, there were many deep-catch orders placed at the end of today’s session. Whenever prices dropped significantly, trading activity increased noticeably. Some stocks, particularly securities stocks, witnessed impressive reversals, suggesting a shift in the mindset of capital holders.
Market trading is always a probe into the thinking of each side, and liquidity, range, and price fluctuations are part of that outcome. Guesses can be right or wrong, but over many sessions, when signals align, the probability of accuracy increases. Therefore, market bottoming or topping processes always involve failed fluctuations and rarely end within 1-2 sessions.
Some stocks have corrected to the point where they can be bought. As the market is still unstable, the buying strategy should also be gradual. Stockholders are at a disadvantage, so patience will pay off. Buying on dips is easy; it’s just a matter of covering previously sold stocks, so everyone has a chance without competing.
Today’s derivatives market continued to reflect expectations of the underlying market as the F1 basis remained positive throughout the day. However, this situation, coupled with low liquidity, could easily become a “delicacy” for short sellers. Nevertheless, to push the fluctuation up, the large caps still need to be pushed down. In the morning, the VN30 drop below 1341.xx favored shorts, but it was not very effective as the large caps remained range-bound, and even towards the end of the morning session, late cutters could incur losses. The afternoon session was better; the second time VN30 broke below 1341.xx, there was a synergistic push from the large caps, and although the basis did not narrow, it limited short-selling profits, but the index’s range improved significantly. VN30 has two ranges: 1341.xx to 1334.xx and 1327.xx. However, it is always advisable to maintain discipline and close half the position at the 1334.xx threshold to secure profits, with the remaining half aiming for additional gains or breaking even.
With today’s significant drop in volume, the amount of loose stock appears to be decreasing. The market is likely to experience a few sessions of narrow ranges with continued low liquidity or sessions of range expansion to test supply. The strategy remains to look for buying opportunities in stocks, while being flexible with long/short positions in derivatives.
VN30 closed today at 1335.48. Tomorrow’s resistances are 1341, 1348, 1356, and 1365. Supports are 1333, 1325, 1318, and 1308.
“Blog chứng khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The views, assessments, and investment advice are solely those of the author, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published assessments and investment advice.
