Today’s price action was interrupted by the patience of waiting liquidity, stifling any potential recovery. It was only when prices dipped lower that larger waiting orders emerged, revealing substantial buy-side interest. The low volume carried over from last weekend’s session, which could be seen as a positive sign as those who wanted to cut losses had already done so.
The unexpected macroeconomic data released over the weekend sparked some initial excitement, but the market sentiment quickly turned sour as buying pressure waned. Sellers are currently in control of the market, and price negotiations are likely to continue, resulting in more range-bound sessions like today with low volume until buyers become more aggressive.
Intraday price movements are creating a sense of frustration, as any upward momentum is met with selling pressure. However, this sentiment is likely isolated to long-term holders, as those with cash reserves are in a more comfortable position. The market is still in the “margin testing” phase and has yet to reach the point of testing investors’ psychology. A bottoming process will likely occur when long-term holders become apathetic to price movements and lose interest in the market altogether.
Today’s session had two positive notes. Firstly, the volume; in a downward trend, slow trading after high-volume distribution and sharp declines is a good sign. It indicates either a reduction in selling pressure or a decrease in loose liquidity. The matched orders on the two exchanges today totaled 11.5 thousand billion, similar to mid-September sessions. Secondly, the presence of substantial buy orders at deeper price levels toward the end of today’s session indicates that buyers are becoming more active as prices dip lower. Some stocks, particularly in the securities sector, witnessed impressive reversals, suggesting a shift in sentiment among those with purchasing power.
Market transactions are always a game of probing each side’s intentions, and volume, price range, and direction are all part of the outcome. While predictions can be right or wrong, consistent signals across multiple sessions increase the likelihood of accuracy. Therefore, the process of forming a market bottom or top often involves failed attempts, rarely concluding within a day or two.
Some stocks have pulled back to attractive buying levels, and a step-by-step approach is advisable given the market’s instability. Long-term holders are at a disadvantage, so patience can be a virtue. Buying on dips is easy, as it often involves covering previously sold positions, ensuring everyone gets a piece of the pie without creating competition.
Today’s futures market continued to reflect expectations of a positive basis in the underlying market, with F1 basis remaining positive throughout the day. However, this situation on low volume is easily exploitable by short sellers. To increase volatility, concerted efforts to push down the underlying market are necessary. In the morning session, VN30’s dip below 1341.xx favored shorts, but it was not very profitable as the underlying market remained range-bound, and not cutting losses quickly could even result in a loss. The afternoon session was more favorable, with the second dip below 1341.xx accompanied by stronger selling pressure in the underlying market. While the basis remained unchanged, limiting short sellers’ profits, the index’s price range improved significantly. VN30 has two volatility expansion zones: 1341.xx to 1334.xx and 1327.xx. However, it is crucial to maintain discipline by closing half the position at the 1334.xx level to secure profits, with the remaining half aiming for additional gains or breaking even.
Today’s significant drop in volume suggests a decrease in loose liquidity. The market is likely to experience a few narrow-range sessions with low volume or attempts to test supply by expanding the range. The strategy remains to focus on stock picking, combining long and short positions in derivatives.
VN30 closed today at 1335.48. Tomorrow’s resistance levels are 1341, 1348, 1356, and 1365. Support levels are 1333, 1325, 1318, and 1308.
“Blog chứng khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The assessments and investment views expressed are solely those of the author, and VnEconomy respects the author’s perspective and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the published assessments and investment views.
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