The Flow of Funds: Consecutive Failures at the 1300-Point Peak – Is There Still a Chance for a Breakthrough?

The VN-Index has made two attempts to break through the 1300-point mark in the past five sessions, but both were unsuccessful. The strong liquidity in these failed attempts has left a more distinct impression of distribution activities…

Experts continue to have opposing views on the short-term market trend. The negative outlook from last week proved correct as the VN-Index experienced two fairly strong corrective sessions at the end of the week. This perspective remains concerned about the market being distributed and awaits the bottom of this corrective phase at a relatively deep level. In contrast, more optimistic opinions persist, suggesting that despite the high liquidity and evident downward pressure last week, selling signals were exhausted by the week’s end. The expected adjustment threshold is around the 1250-1260-point level.

Despite differing short-term perspectives, experts generally remain positive about the market’s subsequent trend. The current adjustment does not affect the existing upward trend, and the opportunity to surpass the 1300-point mark remains.

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

The market had a rather disappointing trading week, with three unsuccessful attempts to surpass the 1300-point peak. Each time it reached this threshold, selling pressure pushed it down, and it declined in the last two sessions. Last week’s average liquidity also increased significantly, with high liquidity in the declining sessions. This week’s performance was quite different from the previous week. Does this indicate large-scale distribution in the market?

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business Center 3, Yuanta Hanoi

Looking at the weekly VN-Index candle, it has formed a reversing candle cluster with high liquidity compared to the previous period. The daily candle showed an SFP on Thursday, breaking the accumulation base of the previous five sessions with large liquidity. Additionally, since September 29, the index has not formed any attractive candles; the green candles with high liquidity also have long wicks, and the red candles’ liquidity has mostly been above the 20-session average volume. From this, I assess that the market is likely in a large-scale distribution phase.

Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Officer, KBSV Securities

The market’s psychology is turning more negative after the continuous upward momentum was halted around the 1300-point mark. Such a development is understandable as investors have high expectations, especially with the banking group taking the lead. The supply and demand correlation became apparent in the final trading session, with a sharp drop in liquidity and the index closing at the session’s lowest point, signaling a contraction from the buying side.

However, I believe these signals indicate profit-taking activities rather than redistribution around the peak. While liquidity above VND 20,000 billion is positive at this point, it is not significant enough to confirm a distribution session. The market will likely continue to fluctuate to shake off short-term trading positions and return to a balanced zone to attract proactive buying force again.

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company

Last week, the market once again failed to conquer the psychological threshold of 1300 points and experienced stronger selling pressure. However, with only one session of intense selling, I believe there are insufficient signals to conclude that the market is being distributed. Conversely, as the leading banking group maintains positive signals and does not experience strong selling pressure, I tend to believe that the market is only in a short-term shake-up at the 1300-point level and will likely return to conquer it.

Nguyen The Hoai – Director of Dong Nai Branch, Rong Viet Securities

The short-term trend is being challenged as the banking group is experiencing profit-taking. This group has a large market capitalization and high liquidity, which increases the market’s liquidity. But to say that the market is in a large-scale distribution phase, I think it’s not time yet.

Le Duc Khanh – Director of Analysis, VPS Securities

The strong resistance level of 1300 points remains a challenging milestone for the market. It is common for the index to adjust and accumulate or turn downward to the support zone below. In my opinion, the VN-Index needs more time to return to the peak, and there is an opportunity for the market to recover next week.

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

Last week, you assessed that the market was moving sideways and had not surpassed the 1300-point threshold, only a normal accumulation pace. With more negative changes this week, will the market enter a real corrective phase? How deep can the adjustment threshold be?

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company

As mentioned earlier, I believe the current signals are not overly negative. The market has only experienced one intense selling session, and there was no continuous selling pressure in the final session, evident in the low-volume decline. Meanwhile, the leading banking group maintains its upward trend. Therefore, I expect this to be only a short-term correction, and the market is likely to recover next week. Support is in the 1266-1283 or 1250-1260-point region.

Nguyen The Hoai – Director of Dong Nai Branch, Rong Viet Securities

I assess that the market trend remains positive in the medium term. Last week, tense geopolitical news hindered the conquest of the 1300-point threshold, leading to a retreat. However, with the domestic and foreign macroeconomic situation remaining stable, I think the index’s adjustment level could be 1250 +/- 10 points.

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business Center 3, Yuanta Hanoi

Last week, I assessed that the VN-Index had reached the end of Wave 5 and would enter a corrective phase, and the market was in a distribution phase. This happened, and the index had corrective sessions that broke the building base. Currently, I am paying attention to several support zones: around 1240 points and 1200 points. However, these support zones do not guarantee a rebound but depend on the price action conditions at these levels.

Le Duc Khanh – Director of Analysis, VPS Securities

In my opinion, the market will adjust but remain within the 1265-1275-point zone. Two support and resistance zones to note reflect the market’s movement above the 1260-1265 +/- point threshold (the deepest level early next week) and will likely recover to the 1270-1275-point zone. If the VN-Index surpasses 1275, there is a high chance it will return to the old peak of 1300 points and break through in the subsequent upward momentum.

Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Officer, KBSV Securities

The less favorable developments this week are not enough to change my personal perspective. The overall trading psychology has turned negative as the VN-Index’s attempt to conquer the 1300-point threshold failed, leading to more profit-taking and position reduction to safe levels. However, I believe that the previous upward momentum was mainly driven by cash from investors, and leverage was not significant. Therefore, the market is unlikely to experience a series of sharp declines. The potential support zone for the index to show a recovery reaction is around the 1255 (+-10) point level.

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

One reason the VN-Index failed to break through the 1300-point mark last week was the weakness of large-cap stocks, including the leading banking group. Stocks like VHM, VIC, GAS, and FPT lacked strength, while bank stocks experienced clear profit-taking after an impressive previous gain. In last week’s discussion, you highly appreciated the strength of the banking group and its role in taking the VN-Index to new heights. Can this group maintain its role while facing profit-taking and turning downward?

Nguyen The Hoai – Director of Dong Nai Branch, Rong Viet Securities

After a considerable increase, it is reasonable for the banking group to undergo a correction. In terms of valuation, this group remains attractive, so I think it will continue to be the market’s main driver in the coming period. Additionally, foreign investors have recently returned to net buying stability. When large-cap stocks achieve consensus, the market will overcome this challenge.

Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Officer, KBSV Securities

Some bank stocks have gone through a steep upward phase, so profit-taking is a normal development as investors want to secure profits. This is not necessarily a negative signal, and what’s important is the supply and demand correlation of the stock itself. When there is sufficient large-scale cash inflow for multiple sessions, the stock’s upward momentum will improve, and buying force will rejoin the stock after a deep enough correction. Additionally, the wave of large-cap stock increases typically lasts a long time rather than just a few sessions. Therefore, I expect the banking group to maintain its leading role for the index.

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business Center 3, Yuanta Hanoi

In last week’s discussion, I did not highly appreciate the strength of the banking group because the robust and profitable stocks were the small and medium-sized ones. Many bank stocks have returned to their all-time highs or reached strong resistance zones. I assess that this group will not maintain its role in leading and supporting the market as in the previous phase and may even create additional downward pressure.

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company

After the corrective signals last week, I remain optimistic about the banking group’s ability to maintain its critical role in driving the VN-Index’s upward trend. Although the entire market experienced intense selling last week, the banking group showed resilience, not facing strong selling pressure and maintaining its upward trend. Additionally, cash flow shifted to small and medium-sized bank stocks. These signals suggest that it was small- individuals taking profits after a good gain rather than large-scale investors exiting their positions. Therefore, I expect this group to maintain its trend and continue its mission of leading the index when the market recovers.

Le Duc Khanh – Director of Analysis, VPS Securities

In my opinion, the banking group can still recover after a few corrective sessions, but then it will differentiate, with some stocks continuing to rise while others accumulate and correct without further increases. Other groups, such as securities, steel, and oil and gas, may replace the banking group in supporting the market.

Nguyen Hoang – VnEconomy

In the context of a poor performance in the underlying market, the VN30 index futures maintained a wide positive basis. Is this an absurdity or a positive signal about market expectations? If you were to participate in derivatives, would you bet on Long or Short at this point?

Nguyen Viet Quang – Director of Business Center 3, Yuanta Hanoi

Vietnam’s derivatives market is currently small, so several factors can influence it. I won’t try to explain the absurdity of the VN30 futures index maintaining a nearly seven-point positive basis. Technically, VN30F1M has completed Wave 5 and is in the “a” corrective phase, so I would bet on the Short side. But I’ll wait for the second bounce to get a reasonable entry point.

Nguyen Thi My Lien – Head of Analysis, Phu Hung Securities Company

Currently, the indices are correcting, but the dominant upward trend remains intact. In an upward trend, the futures index having a higher score than the underlying indicates the market’s expectation that the index could continue to rise in the future. Therefore, the positive gap reflects the market’s optimism about the upward trend’s potential continuation. If I were to participate in derivatives, I would prioritize Short-term positions during the short-term correction and Long positions when the market approaches the support level.