An impressive turnaround unfolded during the futures expiration session. It’s unclear whether this was a pull-up effect, but the recovery was widespread, with leadership and good participation.
According to regulations, the final settlement price is calculated from the last 15 minutes of the continuous matching period and the ATC session, but the market recovered this afternoon just a few minutes after the opening bell. The rally was persistent, successful until the end, and supported by breadth. Even if there was a pull-up effect, such effectiveness is very positive, indicating that open trading has returned.
The order placement style and size always reflect the risk appetite the best. The aggressive buying style witnessed this afternoon demonstrates a high level of proactiveness. The broad participation also indicates a similar mindset, even though individual stocks recovered at different paces. Improved liquidity in the afternoon also suggests alignment in liquidity, range, and price direction. That’s the true meaning of “wick-pulling candles.”
Before today’s reversal, the market went through a narrow-range session with minimal volume (12.5 trillion VND) and the smallest morning volume in eight sessions. The only issue this morning was that stocks had a slightly wider downward range; if it had been narrower, the signal would have been stronger. Nonetheless, the outcome was still positive. It seems that money has been waiting for the October expiration to pass before taking action.
Technically, today’s reversal is a positive sign, maintaining the uptrend in the VNI since August. If the market continues to rise on the last trading day of the week, there is a high probability that the index will form another higher low. Such a technical pattern will attract attention, and as long as the downturns become shorter in duration, narrower in range, and closer to the resistance level, the chances of breaking through the resistance increase.
However, it’s important to note that the index has its own story, and a breakout would be ideal as it would create broad consensus and change the mindset of conservative investors. Opportunities still lie in specific stocks, and even in a favorable scenario, the chances are not equal. Therefore, focus on your portfolio first. Stocks that have undergone a minor correction within their typical fluctuation range are strong. Those forming a bottom are also worth considering. It only takes a few more sessions for the lethargic, discouraged, and pessimistic psychology of the past few days to evaporate!
Today is the futures expiration, and F2 maintains an excessively wide basis (averaging nearly 8 points). The F2 term is still very long, so shorts are unlikely to benefit from basis expansion. F1, on the other hand, doesn’t need to consider the basis, making it easier to set stop losses.
The initial slide this morning lacked a standard setup, with the VN30 mostly fluctuating below 1359.xx, quite far off, and at a slow pace. A better opportunity presented itself when the VN30 broke below 1353.xx; if this level was breached, the next supports were 1348.xx and 1341.xx, and stop losses for shorts could be set according to the VN30 when it rebounded above 1348.xx. At the beginning of the afternoon session, the VN30 broke below 1348.xx, and the basis turned positive, after which the index rebounded above 1348.xx. That was the point to close the position. The subsequent rebound again created a good setup for longs, with stop losses set according to the VN30 if it fell back below 1348.xx. The target for closing half the position was VN30 reaching 1353.xx, and the rest rode beautifully to 1359.xx.
Today’s F2 performance indicates a considerable expectation for the underlying market, even as the VNI and VN30 plunged this morning. The inflow of money pushing prices up had a positive effect, altering the psychology of discouragement over the past few days. The opportunity for the indexes to retest the peak zone remains. The strategy is to be long/short flexible, favoring longs, and paying attention to the basis.
VN30 closed today at 1362.89. Tomorrow’s immediate resistance is at 1368, 1376, 1380, 1387, 1396, and 1401. Supports are at 1358, 1348, 1341, and 1333.
“Blog chứng khoán” reflects the personal views of the author and does not represent the opinions of VnEconomy. The perspectives and assessments are solely those of the individual investor, and VnEconomy respects the author’s viewpoint and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for any issues arising from the investment views and recommendations presented in this blog.
