On the evening of October 22, gold bar prices surged to 89 million VND per tael, a million VND increase compared to the previous day. Gold ring and 24K gold jewelry prices also hit a new peak at 87.78 million VND per tael, a rise of over 2 million VND. However, the market was not as bustling as in previous months, mainly due to the difficulties in buying and selling.
Selling Gold is Also Difficult
Posing as someone looking to sell gold, we visited several stores of prominent gold brands in Ho Chi Minh City, such as PNJ, DOJI, and Mi Hong. We inquired about selling SJC gold bars and plain 24K gold rings, but the staff informed us that they only purchase SJC gold under the condition that the bar remains intact, without any dents or damage to the plastic wrapping. As for 99.99% purity gold rings, the stores only buy their own brand.
At a PNJ store on Dien Bien Phu Street (District 3), the staff mentioned that they do not buy gold from other brands, except for PNJ gold rings. They also do not purchase SJC gold bars of 1, 2, or 5 taels and only accept quantities of 1 tael or more. A similar situation occurred at the DOJI store on Cach Mang Thang Tam Street (District 3).
In the Tan Dinh market area (District 1), a store on Nguyen Huu Cau Street refused to buy SJC gold bars or gold rings from brands like PNJ, DOJI, Bao Tin Manh Hai, or other goldsmiths. Notably, this shop also did not have any gold rings for sale, offering only gold jewelry. The staff reminded us that this was the case everywhere due to the strict requirements for a business license to trade SJC gold bars.
Large and small gold shops in Ho Chi Minh City currently do not accept the purchase or sale of SJC gold bars, and gold ring transactions are also very limited. Photo: LAM GIANG
Several people also shared with the NLD newspaper their difficulties in selling SJC gold bars and gold rings of various brands at gold shops, despite the high prices. Notably, with SJC gold bars, people can place orders at four commercial banks: Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV, and Agribank, as well as the Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC), according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) regulations. However, they can only sell to the SJC company, as the four banks are not authorized to buy.
Commenting on the domestic gold market and the challenges in gold transactions, economic expert Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu stated that it is time for the managing agency to reconsider the gold market stabilization program. He explained that the goal of narrowing the gap between domestic and world gold prices has been achieved, reducing the difference from 18-20 million VND per tael to the current 4-5 million VND. “As SJC gold bar prices are surging along with the global market and supply is limited, it will stimulate people’s demand for buying and holding gold, which is a reasonable and legal need,” Dr. Hieu analyzed.
Risks of Buying Gold at Peak Prices
According to experts, the domestic gold price has been shockingly increasing, following the sharp rise in the world market. Internationally, gold prices climbed to 2,734 USD/ounce (as of October 22, Vietnam time) amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and central banks’ continued interest rate cut plans.
The world gold price is at its highest level ever. Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have risen by more than 750 USD/ounce (nearly a 38% increase). Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong opined that gold prices are rising too quickly and could reverse suddenly. “The probability of gold prices plunging in the short term due to profit-taking pressure is hard to avoid,” he said.
Therefore, investing in gold at this time is quite risky. Historically, gold prices rarely increase by more than 30% in a year, and a strong rise is still expected in the following year. Thus, gold prices are forecast to continue climbing in 2025 but may experience unexpected drops.” – Mr. Tran Duy Phuong warned.
Financial expert Phan Dung Khanh noted a rare phenomenon in the financial market, where not only gold and stock prices but also the USD rate are rising simultaneously. Typically, when the USD appreciates, gold prices fall, but currently, both assets are on an upward trend. Gold prices are predicted to reach the 3,000 USD/ounce mark by the end of this year or early next year.
However, some factors are hindering the upward momentum in gold prices. These include a rising USD, easing tensions in the Middle East, and subsequent fund outflows from gold. “If profit-taking occurs at the record high level of 2,800 – 3,000 USD/ounce, gold prices will decline. China has temporarily halted gold purchases in recent months, and some other countries may also pause and realize profits at these high levels,” said Mr. Phan Dung Khanh.
Regarding domestic gold prices, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu admitted that he could not predict whether SJC gold bar prices would return to the peak of 91 million VND per tael, as seen earlier this year. He attributed this to the SBV’s tight control over the gold price differential between the domestic and world markets.
It remains to be seen whether the SBV will continue this stable gold market policy. Therefore, if individuals or investors want to “ride the wave” to make a profit, they should be cautious. Gold prices, after soaring too high, may create a bubble. However, for long-term storage, buying at this time is still an option.
SBV’s Response
In the context of strong fluctuations in domestic and world gold prices, voters in An Giang province proposed to the SBV to strengthen the management, administration, and control of the gold market, gold prices, and gold enterprises to ensure the stability of this special commodity.
In response, the SBV stated that it has coordinated with ministries, sectors, and localities to implement comprehensive solutions to address the high gold price differential, stabilize the gold market, and contribute to macroeconomic stability.
Specifically, they instructed credit institutions and licensed gold bar trading enterprises to comply with regulations, implement invoice and voucher regimes, organize gold bar auctions, and sell gold bars directly to supplement the SJC gold bar supply for the market.
The SBV will continue to take necessary measures, as directed by the competent authorities, to control the differential between domestic and world gold prices at an appropriate level. They will also coordinate with relevant ministries and sectors to vigorously inspect the gold market, the operations of gold enterprises, and gold bar distribution and trading outlets.
“The SBV is finalizing a report proposing amendments to Decree 24/2012/ND-CP, including provisions on gold bar production management, to perfect the legal framework for gold trading activities, in line with practical situations,” the SBV’s document stated.
Should You Buy Gold Now?
This morning (October 27th), gold ring prices continued to soar, reaching an all-time high of 89 million VND per tael. SJC gold bars also hit a four-month high. However, experts advise investors to exercise caution and refrain from succumbing to herd mentality.
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