The latest report from the research team at the Institute of Banking Science, Banking Academy, forecasts Vietnamโ€™s inflation for 2024 to range between 4% and 4.5%, surpassing the 2023 figure of 3.5%.

The primary drivers are attributed to the pressure from rising global energy and food prices, coupled with the impact of Storm No. 3, which led to a significant increase in domestic production costs and consumer prices.

The report indicates that Vietnamโ€™s economy continued its positive recovery trajectory in the first nine months of 2024. Total state budget revenue reached VND 1,448.2 trillion, a 17.9% increase compared to the same period, thanks to the robust recovery of import-export activities and the domestic economy. However, investment spending decreased by 11.8% due to slower disbursement of public investment capital in the first half of the year. Nonetheless, the state budget maintained a surplus of VND 191,900 billion, reflecting effective public financial management.

Vietnamโ€™s projected growth and inflation rates for 2024 (% yoy). Source: Research team synthesis.

Despite these positive achievements, the Vietnamese economy in 2024 still faces risks from exchange rate fluctuations, global political situations, and potential declines in domestic consumption, which could significantly impact growth rates.

To achieve the targeted GDP growth rate of 6.8% to 7% in 2024, the research team from the Institute of Banking Science suggests that the government maintain synchronized and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, along with effective management solutions.

Earlier, in the October report, the Ministry of Finance also presented two inflation scenarios for 2024, based on the goal of keeping CPI at 4% to 4.5%.

Scenario One: CPI is projected to increase by approximately 3.7% compared to 2023. This scenario represents low inflation, indicating economic stability despite no significant fluctuations in energy and food prices.

Scenario Two: CPI could rise to around 3.92% if adjustments in public service prices, such as healthcare, education, and electricity, are more robust. This scenario reflects the pressure from production and consumption cost factors.

The report clarifies that domestic market prices follow the law of increasing during the Lunar New Year holiday and then decreasing and stabilizing in the following months.

The Ministry of Finance has instructed ministries, sectors, and localities to synchronously implement solutions to control inflation, including strengthening market surveillance, price management, monetary policy management, and transportation cost control.

At the same time, the government will continue to deploy flexible solutions to control prices, including adjusting public service prices, improving production cost management efficiency, promoting goods circulation, enhancing supply connectivity, supporting product consumption, and encouraging domestic consumption to stabilize domestic market prices.

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