I. MARKET ANALYSIS OF THE STOCK MARKET BASED ON DATA FROM DECEMBER 31, 2024
– The main indices dropped during the last trading day of 2024. The VN-Index closed 0.41% lower at 1,266.78 points, while the HNX-Index decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous session, settling at 227.43 points.
– Trading volume on the HOSE reached just over 407 million units, a 10.1% decline from the previous session. Conversely, the trading volume on the HNX increased by 3.7%, reaching more than 36 million units.
– Foreign investors net sold on the HOSE and HNX exchanges, with values of over VND 257 million and VND 4.5 billion, respectively.
Trading value of foreign investors on HOSE, HNX, and UPCOM exchanges for December 31, 2024. Unit: VND billion
Net trading value by stock ticker. Unit: VND billion
– The last trading session of 2024 was subdued due to low liquidity, reflecting a clear holiday mood among investors. The market was mostly mixed and fluctuated around the reference level throughout the session. However, strong selling pressure emerged during the ATC session, particularly in the large-cap stock group, causing the VN-Index to lose more than 5 points. As 2024 came to a close, the VN-Index settled at 1,266.78 points, registering a 12.11% increase compared to the beginning of the year.
– In terms of impact, CTG, VCB, BID, and HDB were the main drags on the market during this final session, taking away nearly 4.5 points from the VN-Index. On the other hand, FPT, ACB, and TCB added back 1.5 points to the overall index.
– The VN30-Index closed 0.19% lower at 1,344.75 points. Sellers dominated with 18 declining stocks, 7 advancing stocks, and 5 unchanged stocks. Among them, HDB witnessed a sharp correction after briefly hitting the ceiling price the previous day, falling by 4.3%. This was followed by CTG, STB, and BVH, which also plunged by over 2%. Conversely, 5 out of 7 gaining stocks rose by more than 1%, including ACB, BCM, FPT, MBB, and TCB.
Today’s decline was mainly driven by selling pressure in large-cap stocks. The financial group led the losses with a 0.76% drop as red dominated the sector. Notably, HDB (-4.32%), CTG (-2.83%), STB (-2.51%), BID (-1.83%), PVI (-3.94%), PSI (-2.56%), BVH (-2.5%), SSI (-1.51%), FTS (-1.4%), and MSB (-1.38%) were among the heavily sold stocks. A few bright spots in this sector included OCB (+3.64%), ACB (+1.57%), MBB (+1.21%), TCB (+1.02%), VAB (+2.17%), and ABB (+1.37%), among others.
The materials sector also witnessed a significant presence of red, as several large-cap stocks in the industry underwent corrections. Notably, KSV experienced its second consecutive floor price session, while HSG (-1.34%), NKG (-1.37%), GVR (-0.65%), DCM (-1.79%), DPM (-1.27%), BMP (-1.21%), and KSB (-2.37%) also declined.
On a positive note, the consumer staples, information technology, and telecommunications sectors topped the leaderboard with gains of over 1%. This was mainly driven by the upward momentum of stocks such as MCH (+6.38%), ANV (+1.02%), HNG (+1.67%), FPT (+1.33%), CMT (+2.58%), VGI (+1.21%), CTR (+1.22%), and FOX (+2%).
The VN-Index‘s decline was relatively negative, accompanied by a trading volume that fell below the 20-day average. This suggests that investors are becoming more cautious. However, the index remains above the Middle Bollinger Band. If, in the upcoming sessions, the index manages to hold above this level while the MACD indicator maintains a buy signal, the situation may not be as pessimistic.
II. TREND AND PRICE MOVEMENT ANALYSIS
VN-Index – Above the Middle Bollinger Band
The VN-Index witnessed a relatively negative decline, with trading volume falling below the 20-day average. This shift indicates a resurgence of caution among investors.
However, the index remains positioned above the Middle Bollinger Band. If, in the upcoming sessions, the index sustains its level above this threshold, and the MACD indicator continues to convey a buy signal, the outlook may not be as pessimistic.
HNX-Index – MACD Indicates a Sell Signal
The HNX-Index declined for the third consecutive session amid trading volume remaining below the 20-day average. This development reflects heightened investor caution.
Presently, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator has triggered a sell signal, and the MACD is conveying a similar message. These signals suggest that the short-term downward trend may persist.
Money Flow Analysis
Changes in Smart Money Flow: The Negative Volume Index indicator for the VN-Index has dipped below the EMA 20-day moving average. If this condition persists in the next session, the likelihood of an unexpected downward thrust will increase.
Changes in Foreign Investment Flow: Foreign investors resumed net selling on December 31, 2024. If this trend continues in the upcoming sessions, the outlook may turn more pessimistic.
III. MARKET STATISTICS FOR DECEMBER 31, 2024
Analysis and Strategy Department, Vietstock Consulting
– 17:06 31/12/2024
